Evolution of Cognitive Influence Systems in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Dynamics from 2020 to 2026, Development Scenarios, and Recommendations for Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose. To analyse the evolution of the cognitive influence systems of the Russian Federation and Ukraine from 2020 to 2026, propose tools for their comparative assessment, develop scenarios up to 2030, and substantiate recommendations for Ukraine.
Method. The study combines analysis of doctrinal documents and open-source analytical materials, comparative analysis, systematisation, periodisation, formalisation, preliminary expert-analytical assessment, and scenario modelling. The proposed index is exploratory and requires further empirical validation.
Findings. An integral Cognitive Capability Index and a conceptual model of cognitive influence effectiveness are proposed; four stages in the development of the parties’ systems and six groups of evolutionary drivers are identified; three conditional scenarios up to 2030 are developed; and an architecture for a national cognitive deterrence system is outlined. The numerical values are preliminary expert-analytical estimates rather than statistically validated measurements.
Theoretical implications. The recommendations may support conceptual and doctrinal development and improvements in defence planning.
Practical implications. The recommendations may support conceptual and doctrinal development and improvements in defence planning.
Originality/value. Periodisation, index-based assessment, and scenario analysis are integrated within a single analytical framework.
Limitations/future research. The study is limited by its reliance on open sources, the preliminary nature of the expert estimates, and the absence of empirical model validation.
Paper type. Theoretical and analytical.
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References
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Copyright (c) 2026 Олег Семененко, Олександр Кінь, Олег Нечаєв, Максим Білан, Артем Семененко, Марія Ярмольчик
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