Transformation of the Security Environment in the Middle East and Its Impact on Ukraine’s National Interests: Neorealist and Constructivist Approaches
Abstract
Purpose. To determine the nature and systemic mechanisms of the impact of the transformation of the Middle Eastern security environment in 2024–2026 on Ukraine’s national interests during the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, based on a combination of neorealist and constructivist approaches.
Method. The study employs systemic, comparative, causal, and scenario-based approaches, together with analysis, synthesis, systematization, and deduction. It is a qualitative, theoretical, and analytical study based on scholarly literature, materials from international organizations, analytical centers, and open sources. Neorealism is used to examine material capabilities and the balance of power, while constructivism is applied to interpret identities, political narratives, and international agency.
Findings. The study identifies four principal mechanisms by which escalation in the Middle East may affect Ukraine’s national interests: military-technical, resource-political, energy-economic, and identity-related. Disruptions to Iran’s production and logistical networks may constrain military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation, although the extent of their impact depends on the adaptability of Russia’s defense-industrial complex. The analysis identifies risks associated with the redistribution of limited international resources between theaters of war and increased energy-related pressure. At the same time, it highlights opportunities for defense diplomacy, military-technological cooperation, and investment partnerships with Middle Eastern states. Qualitative scenarios for further developments are proposed.
Theoretical implications. The study clarifies the application of neorealist and constructivist approaches to interregional security interdependence. It demonstrates the need to analyze material and identity-related factors jointly and treats the concept of a security supercomplex as an analytical hypothesis requiring further empirical substantiation.
Practical implications. The findings may support strategic analysis, defense diplomacy planning, military-technical cooperation, and the assessment of risks to international assistance for Ukraine under conditions of interregional security instability.
Originality/value. The article offers an integrated explanation of the contradictory effects of the Middle Eastern crisis on Ukraine by combining material, economic, and identity-related mechanisms and identifying strategic adaptation priorities.
Limitations/future research. The study is limited by incomplete open-source data, the rapid evolution of events, and differences among analytical assessments. Scenario evaluations are qualitative and should not be interpreted as statistical forecasts. Future research should focus on quantitative assessment of military-technical, energy, and resource-related mechanisms of interregional influence.
Paper type. Theoretical and analytical article.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Володимир Гурковський, Сергій Ільницький, Сергій Митченко, Володимир Рахімов, Юрій Мельничук, Ярослав Янковий
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