Energy Security in the System of Cognitive Warfare: Theoretical and Methodological Foundations for Assessing and Ensuring the Resilience of the State
Abstract
Purpose. To substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing energy security as a factor of cognitive influence under wartime conditions, develop an approach to the comparative assessment of energy infrastructure losses incurred by the conflicting parties, and propose an integrated cognitive impact index.
Method. An interdisciplinary approach was employed, combining the methods of analysis, synthesis, systematisation, comparative and statistical analysis, formalisation, and expert evaluation with the assessment of expert judgment consistency using Kendall’s coefficient of concordance. The information base comprised reports of international organisations, analytical centres, government institutions, and open-source materials.
Findings. The study demonstrates that energy security is one of the key factors of cognitive influence in modern warfare. A comparative analysis of Ukrainian and Russian strike campaigns against energy infrastructure was conducted, assessing economic losses, changes in electricity generation capacity, and their impact on state resilience. An integrated cognitive impact index and an assessment scale are proposed, while the expert-based share of energy security threats within the overall cognitive impact structure is determined.
Theoretical implications. The study advances the theoretical and methodological foundations for integrating the concepts of energy security and cognitive warfare.
Practical implications. The proposed approach can be applied to risk assessment, strengthening the resilience of critical energy infrastructure, and supporting strategic planning.
Future research. Future studies should focus on the empirical validation of the integrated cognitive impact index, verification of the model's robustness using an expanded panel of experts, quantitative sensitivity analysis, and the integration of the proposed approach into strategic decision support systems.
Paper type. Theoretical.
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References
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Copyright (c) 2026 Іван Ткач, Лілія Семененко, Володимир Комаров, Володимир Кривцун, Олександр Сігнаєвський, Роман Дзюбчук
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