New Geopolıtıcal Features of the South Caucasus Regıon
Abstract
Purpose. To identify the main geopolitical trends of the rapid transformations that have occurred in the security architecture of the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War.
Method. Historical, comparative analysis, systematic approach and structural analysis methods.
Findings. The connection of new geopolitical activity with proselytism in the South Caucasus is the leitmotif of this research work. Here we can focus on two trends. First, this is a very dangerous trend and can turn the region into a battlefield of extra-state and military alliances. Second, the classical threat model can be replaced by new regionalism principles based on economic cooperation. Overall, the confrontation-cooperation axis will continue its transformative role more rapidly in the formation of the new security architecture of the South Caucasus.
Theoretical implications. The Second Karabakh War had a serious impact on theoretical issues related to security in the South Caucasus. The traditional sphere of influence and threat model that has maintained itself in the South Caucasus for a century is currently undergoing a period of transformation. The regional geopolitical order is expanding due to new actors, the range of threats is expanding and increasingly originating from abroad. Despite the influx of external influences into the region, confidence in the creation of a unified security system among the countries of the region is growing.
Practical implications. The results of the Second Karabakh War have brought the South Caucasus out of its inertia. Geopolitical dualism is noticeable in the region. On the one hand, there is an expansion of the horizons of intense armament, military-technical cooperation between local states and new transregional actors, and even the transition of extra-state competition to this region. On the other hand, confident steps towards peace and peaceful coexistence are evident in the region. The achievement of reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the initiative of the United States and the transformation of the Zangezur corridor (TRIP) into the main object of this reconciliation creates the basis for the beginning of a new stage of regionalism in the South Caucasus, and the replacement of military rhetoric with heated disputes around regional corridors.
Value. This article is considered significant in terms of the new content of the geopolitical processes that took place in the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War, the radical transformation of traditional views, and the transformation of the region into a theater of extra-state conflict.
Paper type. Theoretical.
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