The Stability Through Caution: NATO’S Evolution Under the Doctrine of Strategic Restraint
Abstract
Purpose. To examine NATO’s evolving strategic posture in future, focusing on how the Alliance balances deterrence, defense, and diplomatic restraint in a rapidly changing security environment.
Method: Comparative analysis, and synthesis.
Findings. Finland’s accession in 2023 and Sweden’s in 2024 significantly strengthened NATO’s defensive posture in Northern Europe and the Baltic region by expanding the Alliance’s traditional and asymmetric capability potential. The enlargement followed a thorough assessment of political and security risks, underscoring the Alliance’s prioritisation of stability and cohesion. The aspirant countries—Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Moldova—remain outside the enlargement process due to high escalation sensitivity and the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. NATO applies a calibrated approach to provocations, prioritising consultations, diplomacy, and surveillance. Incidents such as the 2025 Estonian airspace violation or the interception of drones by Poland illustrate this differentiation: low-level threats are neutralised, while actions with a high risk of escalation are avoided. Despite growing defence expenditures, the Alliance faces persistent personnel shortages, complicating the implementation of regional defence plans. Operational capabilities remain unevenly distributed among member states, and European rapid-deployment forces continue to depend on U.S. strategic assets. The strategic focus increasingly encompasses cyber defence, hybrid threats, artificial intelligence, and modern missile defence systems, reflecting NATO’s shift toward flexible deterrence and technological superiority.
Theoretical implications. The study demonstrates that NATO’s strategic restraint, selective enlargement, and reliance on technological superiority offer a nuanced theoretical framework for understanding alliance cohesion, modern deterrence, and the role of third-party mediation in protracted conflicts.
Practical implications. The study suggests that NATO can enhance alliance cohesion, crisis responsiveness, and conflict management by combining strategic restraint, selective enlargement, technological investment, and robust third-party mediation mechanisms.
Value. The study provides critical insights into NATO’s strategic restraint, selective enlargement, and adaptive responses to modern threats, offering both theoretical contributions to alliance behavior and practical guidance for policymakers navigating contemporary security challenges.
Downloads
References
Apnews.com (2025). Croatia reintroduces military conscription as Europe worries about Russia-Ukraine war, AP News, 24 October. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/croatia-compulsory-military-service-ukraine-32c84a8c4afc8790bee82644d8366e46 (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Blessing, J., Elgin, K. K., & Ewers Peters, N. M. (Eds.). (2021). NATO 2030: Towards a new strategic concept and beyond. Foreign Policy Institute / Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University SAIS. Available at: https://sais.jhu.edu/sites/default/files/NATO2030AndBeyondAccessibleVersion.pdf (Accessed: January 11, 2025).
Bosica, J.M. (2024). NATO’s new force model: A watershed step for the alliance’s deterrence, defence and crisis management missions in a complex Euro-Atlantic security landscape. Atlantic Forum. Available at: https://www.atlantic-forum.com/atlantica/natos-new-force-model-a-watershed-step-for-the-alliances-deterrence-defence-and-crisis-management-missions-in-a-complex-euro-atlantic-security-landscape. (Accessed: January 20, 2025).
cnbc.com (2025). Russian jets enter Estonia’s airspace in latest test for NATO CNBC. 20 September. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/20/russian-jets-enter-estonias-airspace-in-latest-test-for-nato.html (Accessed: 24 September, 2025).
Dapkus, L. (2025). Lithuania vows to boost defense spending to 5–6% of GDP, citing the threat of Russian aggression, AP News, 17 January. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/lithuania-defense-spending-nato-trump-nauseda-baltic-b1328b37e85fd755f25ce647deed6bf1 (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Decker, N. (2025). The Doctrine of Strategic Restraint: A Framework for Diplomatic De-escalation and Global Escalation Prevention Integrating Moral Forecasting, Conflict Modeling, and Systems Stewardship for 21st-Century Statecraft, SSRN. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5320166 (Accessed: 26 October 2025).
Defencesecurityasia.com (2025). Macron’s bold ultimatum to Europe: Ditch American weapons, buy European or risk U.S. control. 19 March. Available at: https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/macrons-bold-ultimatum-to-europe-ditch-american-weapons-buy-european-or-risk-u-s-control/?utm_source (Accessed: 31 March, 2025).
Dembinski, M. & Spanger, H.J. (2021). NATO’s uncertain future: Expert-assessments of NATO’s role in national security and the emerging global order. Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) / Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES). Available at: https://www.prif.org/en/about-us/news/details/study-natos-uncertain-future (Accessed: September 19, 2025).
Deni, J.R. (2024). The new NATO force model: Ready for launch? NATO Defense College. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep60400 (Accessed: 30 January, 2025).
Duggal, H. (2025). Tracking US and NATO support for Ukraine: A full breakdown. Al Jazeera, 21 August. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/21/tracking-us-and-nato-support-for-ukraine-a-full-breakdown (Accessed: 29 September, 2025).
Ellehuus, R. (2021). NATO Futures: Three Trajectories. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/nato-futures-three-trajectories?utm_source (Accessed: 19 September, 2025).
Eurostat (2021). Population projections at regional level. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Population_projections_at_regional_level (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Eurostat (2023). Natural population decrease in most EU regions in 2021. 21 November. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20231121-4 (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Eurostat (2025). Population structure and ageing. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Population_structure_and_ageing (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Fasola, N. (2024). Reforming and enhancing partnerships to strengthen NATO’s strategic posture. U.S. Army War College. Available at: https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3974674/reforming-and-enhancing-partnerships-to-strengthen-natos-strategic-posture (Accessed: 13 January, 2025).
Global Firepower (2025). 2025 Military Strength Ranking. Available at: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php (Accessed: 17 March, 2025).
Guner, E., Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2022). Theories of war in practice: causes and termination (in the example of the Second Karabakh War). Wiedza Obronna. https://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-89aad26d-dfd7-43bb-bd20-7a03a28fee22 (Accessed: 17 March, 2025).
hurriyetdailynews.com (2015). Two Russian warplanes violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds: Turkey’, Hürriyet Daily News, 25 November. Available at: https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-russian-warplanes-violated-turkish-airspace-for-17-seconds-turkey-91635 (Accessed: 24 September, 2025).
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2019). The south Caucasus and NATO’s defence education enhancement programme. Retrospective analysis. Social development and Security, 9(5), pp. 3-14. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2019.9.5.1
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2020a). Hybrid warfare as an instrument of political leverage (With a special focus on the South Caucasus). The Russian federation and international security edited by Miroslaw Banasik, Piotr Gawliczek and Agnieszka Rogozinska (Poland: Difin publishing house, 2020), pp. 117-136.
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2020b). Hybrid warfare as a new type of war. The evolution of its conceptual construct in Miroslaw Banasik, Piotr Gawliciczek and Agnieszka Rogozinska (eds) The Russian federation and international security, Poland: Difin publishing house, 2020, pp. 96-107.
Iskandarov, K., Gawliczek, P., & Dadashzade, V. (2024). The Theories of war in practice: possible outcomes and means for the termination of war. Case study: Russian war against Ukraine. Social Development and Security, 14(4), pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2024.14.4.1.
Iskandarov, K., Gawliczek, P. & Tomasik, J. (2022). Termination of war: factors affecting the outcome (in the example of the Second Karabakh War), Civitas et Lex, 35. https://doi.org/10.31648/cetl.7736 (Accessed: 26 January, 2024).
Johansen, I. (2018). Scenario modelling with morphological analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 126, pp.116–125. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.016 (Accessed: 11 September, 2025).
Joint Research Centre (2025). Tackling EU’s shrinking workforce? Better education, more women in jobs, skilled migration. 11 June. Available at: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/tackling-eus-shrinking-workforce-better-education-more-women-jobs-skilled-migration-2025-06-11_en (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Kasapoglu, C. & Rough, P. (2025). European strategic autonomy is an illusion. 28 March. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/european-strategic-autonomy-is-an-illusion (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
Kendall-Taylor, A., Townsend, J., Johnston, K. & Weaver, G. (2025). Understanding Russia’s Calculus on Opportunistic Aggression in Europe. Washington, D.C.: Center for a New American Security. Available at: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/understanding-russias-calculus-on-opportunistic-aggression-in-europe (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Lațici, T. (2021). NATO looks to the 2030s. European Parliamentary Research Service. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2021/689374/EPRS_ATA%282021%29689374_EN.pdf?utm (Accessed: September 19, 2025).
Liang, X., Tian, N., Lopes da Silva, D., Scarazzato, L., Karim, Z.A. & Guiberteau Ricard, J. (2025). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), April. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2504_fs_milex_2024.pdf (Accessed: 23 September, 2025).
Loorents, N. (2024, July). NATO's Regional Defence Plans. Washington Summit Series No. 5. International Centre for Defence and Security. Available at: https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/07/No-5_NATOs-Regional-Defence-Plans_Nele-Loorents.pdf (Accessed: 6 February, 2025).
Monaghan, S., Jakobsen, E., Martinez, S., Droin, M., Sanders, G., Velazquez, N., Cook, C., Dowd, A., & Sockwell, M. (2024). Is NATO ready for war? Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-06/240611_Monaghan_Ready_War_0.pdf (Accessed: 26 January, 2025).
Nasirov, E., & Iskandarov, K. (2017). The prospects of Azerbaijan to enhance military interoperability with NATO. Connections, 16(4), pp. 89-99. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26867928 (Accessed: 12 January, 2025).
NATO Allied Command Transformation (2024). Unveiling the Future: The Release of Allied Command Transformation’s Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023. 17 January. Available at: https://www.act.nato.int/article/act-releases-sfa-2023/ (Accessed: 18 September, 2025).
news.err.ee (2025). 3 Russian fighter jets violate Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. ERR News. Available at: https://news.err.ee/1609806336/3-russian-fighter-jets-violate-estonian-airspace-for-12-minutes (Accessed: 24 September, 2025).
Office for National Statistics (2025). National population projections: 2022-based. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2022based (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Pillar, P.R. (1983). Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (n.d.) The Future of NATO. Available at: https://quincyinst.org/collection/the-future-of-nato/# (Accessed: 26 March, 2025).
Reuters (2024). Germany may expand military to 230,000 troops in NATO push, Reuters, 18 December. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-may-expand-military-230000-troops-nato-push-2024-12-18/ (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Reuters (2025). Poland mulls enshrining defence spending, plans army training for all men, Reuters, 7 March. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-proposes-enshrining-defence-spending-least-4-gdp-constitution-2025-03-07/ (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Rummel, R.J. (1979). Understanding Conflict and War: War, Power, Peace, Beverly Hills, California: Sage Publications.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2024). World nuclear forces. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB24%2007%20WNF.pdf (Accessed: 31 March, 2025).
Szenes, Z. (2023). Reinforcing deterrence: assessing NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept. Defense & Security Analysis, 39(4), pp. 539–560. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2023.2270230 (Accessed: 11 January, 2025).
Szymański, P., Chmielewski, B. & Menkiszak, M. (2025). Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace: a test of NATO’s unity, OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, 22 September. Available at: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-09-22/russian-fighter-jets-estonian-airspace-a-test-natos-unity (Accessed: 24 September, 2025).
Turkish Statistical Institute (2024). Population Projections, 2023–2100. Available at: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?dil=2&p=Population-Projections-2023-2100-53699 (Accessed: 24 October 2025).
Wagner, A. & Taylor, K. (2025). How to Fill NATO’s Manpower Gap. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/natos-manpower-gap (Accessed: 23 September, 2025).
Abstract views: 43 PDF Downloads: 20
Copyright (c) 2025 Khayal Iskandarov
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
