Innovative approach to reducing cognitive biases in expert evaluation
Abstract
Purpose: develop an innovative approach to reducing cognitive biases in expert evaluation.
Method: cognitive analysis.
Findings: cognitive biases and factors influencing the expert have been identified. Strategies for improving the objectivity of expert information evaluation, considering the cognitive factor, have been proposed, along with a method for aggregating expert assessments taking their reliability into account.
Theoretical implications: the approach outlined in the article for reducing cognitive biases in expert assessments can be used as an element of the cognitive method for processing, analyzing, and interpreting information.
Value: it helps to improve the reliability of the information analysis results provided to the commanders (leaders) of military command bodies, units, formations, and military units during the planning of military operations.
Future research: in further research, it is advisable to improve the method of aggregating interval expert assessments considering their reliability by solving the task of algorithmically obtaining a single evaluation based on several initial expert assessments presented in verbal form. This would involve converting verbal assessments into interval numbers, processing them collectively, and then transforming them into a single verbal assessment.
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