Information Resilience of the Operational (Crisis) Marine Water Monitoring System Under Military and Technogenic Threats
Abstract
Purpose. Substantiation of the conceptual approach and mathematical provisions for assessing the information resilience of the system of operational (crisis) monitoring of sea waters in conditions of military and technogenic threats.
Method. The work uses a complex of general scientific and special mathematical methods: system analysis and synthesis for critical assessment of the regulatory framework and formation of the system architecture with the integration of Maritime Unmanned Systems (hereinafter referred to as UМS); mathematical apparatus of reliability theory for formalization of the “information resilience” indicator; scenario modelling to analyse the behaviour of the proposed integral indicator under different levels of degradation of the system components; and information theory principles for the conceptual interpretation of information uncertainty under data-scarcity conditions.
Findings. The need for a conceptual shift in the paradigm of marine water monitoring and a transition from the traditional peacetime model, focused on absolute data completeness, to a proactive crisis-oriented model has been substantiated. A mathematical formulation aimed at minimizing information uncertainty has been developed. Scenario modelling demonstrated the need to employ alternative secure communication channels and data acquisition tools, including Unmanned Maritime Systems (UMS), in the event of critical degradation of the civilian monitoring system.
Theoretical implications. The study expands the theoretical and methodological apparatus for evaluating environmental monitoring systems by introducing the criterion of "information resilience". A conceptual mathematical framework for assessing information resilience based on reliability theory has been developed, while Shannon entropy is considered a prospective tool for quantifying information uncertainty.
Practical implications. The proposed approach allows you to optimize the information support of the management bodies of the Unified State System of Civil Protection (hereinafter referred to as the Unified State System of Civil Protection), significantly reducing the time for making decisions on responding to threats.
Future research. Direction for further research is construction of comprehensive stochastic mathematical model for operational application and development of dynamic routing algoritms for UМS under military and technogenic threats.
Paper type. Theoretical.
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References
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