Methodology for Prioritizing and Assessing the Impact of Cognitive Threats on the Effectiveness of the Strategic Communications System of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose: development and scientific substantiation of a methodology for prioritizing and assessing the impact of cognitive threats on the effectiveness of the strategic communications system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine based on the integration of a game-theoretic approach, the provisions of probability theory, the additive convolution method, and the method of hierarchy analysis.
Method. A set of mathematical and analytical methods, including game-theoretic modelling of cognitive confrontation, probabilistic methods for assessing uncertainty and risks, the additive aggregation method for the integral evaluation of multicriteria indicators, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for determining criterion weights and ranking cognitive threats.
Practical implications. lies in the possibility of using the proposed methodology for formalized prioritization of cognitive threats, increasing the validity of management decisions in the field of strategic communications, optimizing the allocation of information countermeasure resources, and increasing the stability of the information space of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Future research. Improving models for assessing cognitive threats through the application of fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods (Fuzzy AHP), the development of dynamic stochastic models of information confrontation, and the creation of decision support software tools for strategic communications.
Paper type: Theoretical, practical.
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