Use of risk analysis methods in relation to terrorist threats at protected critical infrastructure facilities
Abstract
Purpose: on the basis of a study of the transformation of the concept of risk (relating to a protected critical infrastructure object), the characteristics of a terrorist act and terrorist threats, to consider methods of risk analysis in relation to terrorist threats on protected critical infrastructure objects.Design/Method/Approach the methods of the theory of probabilities and mathematical statistics, the theory of fuzzy sets and interval mathematics, the theory of risks and the modeling of dynamic processes were used in the performance of this work.Findings: it is shown that in relation to a protected object of critical infrastructure, risk is a measure of a quantitative, multi-component measure of danger, including the amount of damage from the impact of threats that appear in the form of technical and technological, natural and ecological, economic and psychological, social and other incidents. They manifest themselves as failures and failures, accidents and accidents, explosions and fires, collapses and disasters and lead to stopping or limiting the functioning of these objects. Then it is shown that a typical scenario of a terrorist attack consists of ten stages, and terrorist threats on protected critical infrastructure facilities are possible socially dangerous consequences of malicious actions that lead to stopping or limiting the functioning of these facilities. It was concluded that for the risk analysis of terrorist threats on protected critical infrastructure facilities, the lack of statistical data in the assessment of various threats ensured the dominance of probabilistic heuristic methods based on the use of subjective probabilities obtained through expert assessment.Theoretical implications: lies in the fact that the lack of statistical data in the assessment of various threats to protected critical infrastructure facilities ensures the dominance of probabilistic heuristic methods based on the use of subjective probabilities obtained through expert assessment.Papertype: scientific and practical.
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