Prediction of possible scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy in the context of a “hybrid” war the Russian Federation
Abstract
In the article identifies that in modern military conflicts have emphasis is shifting towards a comprehensive application of political, economic, informational and other non-military measures.
It was noted that for achieve the objectives in the “hybrid” war – the economic sphere is an important operating space and a key non-military mechanism for the preparation and realization of aggression. It was found that for maximum attenuation in the “non-contact” economic potential enemy state, the use of economic instruments in combination with other non-military levers can significantly minimize the use of armed arsenal of the aggressor country. In the article selected research object, the object of the conflict and stakeholders.
The purpose of the article was to predict the four scenarios of development of the Ukrainian economy and the probability of their achievements along 2020-2035 years, based on the selected baseline scenario. For the formation of the main components of the baseline scenario were analyzed strengths and weaknesses of the internal factors of the economy in view of the major contributing factors, and direct and indirect losses from the warfare of the Russian Federation (RF) in the east of Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
They were analyzed by external economic threats, focusing on the monopoly of economic dependence of Ukraine from Russian markets. As a result, it was revealed the main trends and the key factors that have the largest share of influence on forecasting of economic conflict. Based on this analysis defines the main axis with the extrema, the most affecting on the object of investigation.
Based on the method of scenario planning predicted four possible scenarios of economic development of Ukraine for the next 15 years, the strengths and weaknesses of each simulated scenario. The probabilities of accomplishing the desired, not desired, probable and least probable scenarios are determined.
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