The war of the future as a strategic guideline for the forming the critical technologies list
Abstract
Predicting scientific and technological development and, as a result, developing a list of critical technologies in advanced countries is quite common and systematic.
Ukraine, however, forms such a list exclusively for the defense sphere. Highlighting the most promising technological directions that can be implemented in the field of weapons and military equipment requires a clear understanding of the key principles for the operation of new and advanced weapons, as well as the relevance and priority of the development of certain civilian technological areas, which may eventually move into the military.
This paper provides a forecast of the development of the security situation in the world as of 2045. It identifies likely leaders who will spend more than twice as much on their defense, with only two advanced countries that are likely to be at the highest level of military power. It also noted a possible decline in Russiaʼs military capabilities, but an armed threat remains.
The origin of a new sphere of military presence is described – cyberspace, which necessarily entails a change in the forms of future wars. It is also noted that the rapid development of certain technologies, which is currently undergoing scientific and technological development, can lead to catastrophic consequences for all humanity.
Some of the achievements and main principles of the Fifth and Sixth Technological Units, which will inevitably be applied in the development of the latest weapons, are outlined.
Possible directions of modernization of certain available types of weapons are described, as well as key indications of future military conflicts and prospective weapons. In addition, the article provides some data that is drawn from science fiction, but it is quite likely to be used in the creation of promising weapons complexes based on the latest physical principles of action.
Downloads
References
Kupchyn A., Sotnyk V. (2019). Krytychni tekhnolohiyi v oboronniy sferi. Novyy pohlyad. [Critical technologies in the defense sphere. A new look]. Weapons and military equipment, № 2, pp. 35-42 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2019.2(22).35-41
Strategic Trends Programme. Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045. Shrivenham, Swindon: Strategic Trends Programme. Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre. 2017, 172 p.
Sibylle Bauer, Vincent Boulanin, Noel Kelly, Moa Peldán Carlsson. Emerging military and security technologies. SIPRI. Available from: https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/emerging-military-and-security-technologies.
Slyusar V. (2019). Shtuchnyy intelekt yak osnova perspektyvnykh merezh upravlinnya. [Artificial Intelligence as a Basis for Advanced Management Networks]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 7, pp. 89-90 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30247.50087
Novak D.S., Plavan V.P. (2019). Rozrobka smart tekstylyu dlya pidvyshchennya komfortnosti rechovoho mayna viysʹkovosluzhbovtsiv [Development of smart textiles to increase the comfort of real property of military personnel]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 7, pp. 208-210 [in Ukrainian].
Dovhopolyy A.S., Senatorov V.M., Huslyakov O.M., Hrechukhin M.E. (2019). Vprovadzhennya tekhnolohiy dopovnenoyi realʹnosti u viysʹkovu tekhniku v Ukrayini [Implementation of augmented reality technologies in military equipment in Ukraine]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 7, pp. 159-160 [in Ukrainian].
Dovhopolyy A.S., Huslyakov O.M. (2019). Kontseptualʹni osnovy osnashchennya pidrozdiliv Zbroynykh Syl Ukrayiny vitchyznyanymy nazemnymy robotyzovanymy kompleksamy [Conceptual bases of equipping of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with domestic terrestrial robotic complexes]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 7, pp. 158-159 [in Ukrainian].
Tomchuk V.V. (2019). Hlobalʹni naukovi ta tekhnolohichni trendy u sferi rozvytku ozbroyennya ta viysʹkovoyi tekhniky [Global scientific and technological trends in the field of development of weapons and military equipment]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 7, pp. 113-114 [in Ukrainian].
Simon Veronneau, Geoffrey Torrington, Jakub P. Hlavka. 3D Printing. Downstream Production Transforming the Supply Chain. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/PE229
Trevor Johnston, Troy D. Smith, J. Luke Irwin. Additive Manufacturing in 2040. Powerful Enabler, Disruptive Threat. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/PE283
Bradley Martin, Danielle C. Tarraf, Thomas C. Whitmore. Advancing Autonomous Systems an Analysis of Current and Future Technology for Unmanned Maritime Vehicles. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2751
Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk: Euro-Atlantic perspectives - new SIPRI report. SIPRI. Available from: https://www.sipri.org/news/2019/artificial-intelligence-strategic-stability-and-nuclear-risk-euro-atlantic-perspectives-new-sipri
New SIPRI study on autonomy in weapon systems: State of play and options for moving forward. SIPRI. Available from: https://www.sipri.org/media/2017/new-sipri-study-autonomy-weapon-systems-state-play-and-options-moving-forward
Slyusar V. (2017). Batalʹyonna taktychna hrupa 2035 roku [Battalion Tactical Group of 2035]. Abstracts of reports of the international scientific-practical conference "Problems of coordination of military-technical and defense-industrial policy in Ukraine. Prospects for the development of weapons and military equipment", № 5, pp. 82-83 [in Ukrainian].
“Horizon-2020” Program. Available from: https://eu-ua.org/horizon-2020
Slyusar V. (2019). Poshuk dzherel syly. Problemni aspekty enerhetychnoho menedzhmentu transportnykh platform – z urakhuvannyam osnovnykh trendiv ta pidkhodiv naukovykh struktur NATO [Finding sources of power. Problematic aspects of the energy management of transport platforms - taking into account the major trends and approaches of NATO's scientific structures]. Defense Express, № 8, pp. 38-41 [in Ukrainian].
Slyusar V. (2019). Vymohy ta tekhnolohiyi dlya vertolʹotiv nastupnoho pokolinnya [Requirements and technologies for next generation helicopters]. Proceedings of the International Scientific and Technical Conference “Prospects for the Development of Weapons and Military Equipment of the Land Forces", pp. 262-263 [in Ukrainian].
Slyusar V. (2019). Nova systema doslidzhenʹ i rozrobok sukhoputnykh viysʹk USA [A new system of research and development of the US Army]. Weapons and military equipment, № 3, pp. 123-128 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2019.3(23).123-128
Tytti Erästö, Shannon N. Kile and Petr Topychkanov. Nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation. SIPRI. Available from: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2019/07
Geoffrey Chapman, Hassan Elbahtimy, Susan B. Martin. The Future of Chemical Weapons: Implications from the Syrian Civil War. Security Studies. 2018. № 27. pp. 704-733. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2018.1483640
Caitríona McLeish, Filippa Lentzos. Chemical and biological security threats. SIPRI. Available from: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2019/08
Materials of the NATO Working Group meeting «National Soldier Modernisation Programme» 2018.
Richard H. Speier. Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge. RAND Corporation. Available from: https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/03/hypersonic-missiles-a-new-proliferation-challenge.html
Christopher Coker. Still “the human thing”? Technology, human agency and the future of war. SAGE. 2018. № 32, pp. 23-38. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117818754640
Sam Kriegman, Douglas Blackiston, Michael Levin, and Josh Bongard. A scalable pipeline for designing reconfigurable organisms. PNAS. 2020. № 117(4). pp. 1853-1859. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910837117
Lillian Ablon, Anika Binnendijk, Quentin E. Hodgson and others. Operationalizing Cyberspace as a Military Domain. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/PE329
Michael J. Mazarr, Ryan Michael Bauer, Abigail Casey and others. The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare. RAND Corporation. URL: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2714
Quentin E. Hodgson, Logan Ma, Krystyna Marcinek, Karen Schwindt. Fighting Shadows in the Dark. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2961
William Engdahl F. Gene Editing and “Genetically Modified Humans”: China’s “Golem Babies”. There Is Another Agenda. Global Research. Available from: https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-golem-babies-another-agenda/5662154
F. William Engdahl. Gene Edited Catastrophe in Brazil. Mosquitos. Global Research. Available from: https://www.globalresearch.ca/gene-edited-catastrophe-brazil/5690917
Jennifer Conrad. No Man’s War: Will Robots Fight the Battles of the Future? Johns Hopkins University Press. 2019. №39(1). pp. 103-106. https://doi.org/10.1353/sais.2019.0009
Michel Chossudovsky. Does the US Military “Own the Weather”? “Weaponizing the Weather” as an Instrument of Modern Warfare? Global Research. Available from: https://www.globalresearch.ca/does-the-us-military-own-the-weather-weaponizing-the-weather-as-an-instrument-of-modern-warfare/5608728
Abstract views: 876 PDF Downloads: 535
Copyright (c) 2020 Artem Kupchyn, Viktor Dykhanovskyi, Yevhen Kolotukhin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
