Shortcomings of Strategic Foresight and Vulnerability of Ukraine’s Energy Security in Wartime: Problems of Forecasting and Resilience
Abstract
Purpose. To identify the reasons for the failure of implementing strategic foresight in Ukraine’s energy security sector under full-scale war conditions and to substantiate a management model capable of translating foresight scenarios into mandatory infrastructure and political decisions.
Method. Interdisciplinary approach combining institutional-analytical method, scenario analysis, comparative policy analysis, and literature review; empirical data from open sources, media, and international reports used to compare forecasts with actual events from 2022–2026.
Findings. Identified a systemic gap between foresight and management decisions due to institutional inertia, energy sector monopolization, and lack of preventive measures; proposed a “foresight → management decisions → infrastructure” model with recommendations for decentralization, underground placement of facilities, and institutionalization of foresight.
Theoretical Implications. The study fills gaps in analyzing the translation of foresight into management decisions, integrating the “wicked problems” concept into energy security context; reveals monopoly as a security risk and substantiates foresight as a mandatory element of public administration in wartime conditions.
Papertype. Scientific article (analytical, applied).
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References
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Copyright (c) 2026 Юрій Клят, Володимир Гурковський, Олександр Войтко, Марія Ярмольчик, Андрій Захаржевський, Володимир Рахімов
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