Methodological approach to forecasting military expenditures of some countries of the world based on analysis of the dynamics of these expenses for a long-term period (1999-2020)

Abstract

Economic support plays a decisive role in strengthening the defense capability of any state. In most cases, the phenomena of wars and their beginning were stipulated by the struggle for resources, and sometimes, when resources were running out, hostilities were suspended. Plans for the development, construction and use of the armed forces are always developed taking into account the capabilities of the state. In addition, an analysis of the use of financial resources allocated by the state to ensure national security and defense makes it possible to find out the extent of its readiness for war. In the article, the authors propose a methodological approach to forecasting the country's military expenditures based on an analysis of the dynamics of these expenditures over a long-term period (more than twenty years). To analyze the dynamics and forecast of military expenditures, statistical data on the volumes of military expenditures of such countries as Lithuania, Poland, Great Britain, China, Germany, Russia, the USA, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine were used. To calculate the indicators of dynamics, the authors proposed to compare each level of the series with the same basic level. To calculate the indicators of dynamics, each subsequent level of the series is compared with the previous one. The most important statistical indicator of the dynamics is the absolute growth, which is defined as the difference between the comparison of the two levels of the dynamic’s series in the units of the initial information. The proposed methodological approach to forecasting the military spending of some countries of the world based on the analysis of their dynamics makes it possible to obtain a qualitative picture that characterizes the attitude of the state to its own security, and also allows us to fairly reliably predict the volume of defense spending in countries with a stable economy. Further research will be related to the study of internal and external factors affecting the level of military spending in certain countries of the world.