The Intelligence System of the Republic of Moldova amid the Transformation of the Regional Security Environment after 2022
Abstract
Purpose. To provide a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and prospects for the development of the intelligence system of the Republic of Moldova in the context of regional instability following the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the intensification of hybrid threats. Particular attention is paid to intelligence as a key instrument for the identification and early detection of threats to national security.
Method. The research employs a combination of systemic, structural-functional, formal-legal, comparative-legal, logical-analytical, and prognostic methods. The empirical basis includes strategic and regulatory legal acts of the Republic of Moldova, official materials of the Intelligence and Security Service, as well as documents of the European Union, the OSCE, and the Danube Commission.
Results. The findings indicate that, within the contemporary security environment, intelligence performs a system-forming role in ensuring early warning, prevention, and neutralisation of threats. The main risk factors for Moldovan statehood include the unlawful Russian military presence in the Transnistrian region, hybrid interference in domestic political and electoral processes, the destabilising impact of informational, political, and financial influence, and the vulnerability of the Danube logistical corridor.
Theoretical value. The theoretical contribution lies in advancing scholarly understanding of the role of human intelligence within national security systems of small states under sustained hybrid pressure, as well as in clarifying the interrelation between threat detection, counterintelligence support, strategic warning, and institutional resilience.
Practical value. The practical significance of the study consists in developing recommendations for improving threat identification mechanisms, particularly in the context of Ukraine, and in offering a comparative perspective on intelligence models under external pressure.
Article type. Research and analytical.
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