Forecast Scenarios for the Development of the French Republic as a Regional Leader: Risks and Threats to Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of the study is to analyze the development scenarios of the French Republic as a regional leader and to identify the associated risks and threats to Ukraine, as well as to formulate strategic guidelines for Ukrainian foreign policy.
Method: The study is based on a qualitative approach using scenario analysis, comparative analysis, and systematization of scholarly sources. Elements of political and economic analysis are applied to assess internal and external factors influencing France’s policy.
Findings. Three core development scenarios for France are identified: optimistic (“European Shield”), realistic (“Strategic Exhaustion”), and pessimistic (“Internal Fragmentation”). It is demonstrated that France’s strengthening may both enhance support for Ukraine and generate risks of political dependency and strategic compromise.
Theoretical implications. The study advances theoretical approaches to analyzing the role of regional leaders in security systems by integrating scenario modeling with the concept of EU strategic autonomy.
Practical implications. The findings can be used by Ukrainian public authorities to shape foreign policy strategy, manage cooperation risks with France, and develop defense-industrial cooperation.
Paper type. Analytical.
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References
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