Analysis of Factors Affecting the Effectiveness of Port Protection
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of the study is to substantiate and systematize the factors affecting the effectiveness of seaport protection under contemporary armed conflict conditions, using a systems approach and hierarchical decomposition method (“goal tree”), and to refine their structure considering the transformation of threats, particularly those associated with the use of unmanned and precision-guided weapon systems.
Method. The methodological framework of the study is based on the systems approach and structural-functional analysis. The “goal tree” method was applied to hierarchically decompose and structure the factors influencing port protection effectiveness. The research also employs inductive analysis of historical and contemporary case studies of port defence (using a spatio-temporal approach), comparative analysis, and generalization of scientific and military-practical sources.
Findings. The study develops a hierarchical model of factors influencing port protection effectiveness, structured into three core groups: assessment of forces and capabilities; distribution of forces and assets; command and control. Their internal subgroups are identified and interrelationships between them are established. The study clarifies the role of logistical, technical, moral-psychological, and informational factors under conditions of modern warfare characterized by the use of unmanned systems and combined attacks.
Theoretical Implications. The research contributes to the theoretical framework of port defence by refining the systematization of influencing factors and structuring their interdependence within an integrated model. It expands the conceptual understanding of port protection as a multidimensional system, incorporating technological transformation, adaptive command structures, and infrastructure resilience as key components of modern maritime security.
Practical Implications. The proposed model may be applied in: operational and tactical planning of port defence; training of military command bodies; command and staff exercises; development of methodological tools for assessing the resilience of port infrastructure under conditions of armed aggression.
Papertype. Analytical research article of theoretical and applied character with elements of systems modelling.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Oleksandr Maistrenko, Oleksandr Maistrenko, Mykola Rafayilovych
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