Social Development and Security

Key Provisions of the Concept for Assessing and Forecasting the Level of Military-Economic Security of the State

Ivan Havryliuk — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to formulate a conceptually grounded approach to assessing and forecasting the level of the state’s military-economic security under modern military threats, economic turbulence, and the transformation of the security environment.

Method. Systemic, taxonomic, structural–functional, and scenario-based approaches, which enable a comprehensive analysis of the interaction among economic, financial, social, and defence-related factors, as well as the modelling of possible trajectories of the military–economic situation’s development.

Practical implications. The practical value of the study lies in the possibility of applying the developed theoretical and methodological provisions in the process of state strategic planning, improving the efficiency of managing military-economic resources, enhancing the monitoring system of risks, and ensuring the resilience of the state under military and hybrid challenges.

Future research. The prospects for further research include the development of a unified system of indicators of military-economic security, the creation of integrated forecasting models based on real wartime data, and an in-depth analysis of the impact of digitalization, energy transformation, and international military-economic cooperation on the level of national resilience.

Paper type. Theoretical, Practical.

The Stability Through Caution: NATO’S Evolution Under the Doctrine of Strategic Restraint

Khayal Iskandarov — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To examine NATO’s evolving strategic posture in future, focusing on how the Alliance balances deterrence, defense, and diplomatic restraint in a rapidly changing security environment.

Method: Comparative analysis, and synthesis.

Findings. Finland’s accession in 2023 and Sweden’s in 2024 significantly strengthened NATO’s defensive posture in Northern Europe and the Baltic region by expanding the Alliance’s traditional and asymmetric capability potential. The enlargement followed a thorough assessment of political and security risks, underscoring the Alliance’s prioritisation of stability and cohesion. The aspirant countries—Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Moldova—remain outside the enlargement process due to high escalation sensitivity and the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. NATO applies a calibrated approach to provocations, prioritising consultations, diplomacy, and surveillance. Incidents such as the 2025 Estonian airspace violation or the interception of drones by Poland illustrate this differentiation: low-level threats are neutralised, while actions with a high risk of escalation are avoided. Despite growing defence expenditures, the Alliance faces persistent personnel shortages, complicating the implementation of regional defence plans. Operational capabilities remain unevenly distributed among member states, and European rapid-deployment forces continue to depend on U.S. strategic assets. The strategic focus increasingly encompasses cyber defence, hybrid threats, artificial intelligence, and modern missile defence systems, reflecting NATO’s shift toward flexible deterrence and technological superiority.

Theoretical implications. The study demonstrates that NATO’s strategic restraint, selective enlargement, and reliance on technological superiority offer a nuanced theoretical framework for understanding alliance cohesion, modern deterrence, and the role of third-party mediation in protracted conflicts.

Practical implications. The study suggests that NATO can enhance alliance cohesion, crisis responsiveness, and conflict management by combining strategic restraint, selective enlargement, technological investment, and robust third-party mediation mechanisms.

Value. The study provides critical insights into NATO’s strategic restraint, selective enlargement, and adaptive responses to modern threats, offering both theoretical contributions to alliance behavior and practical guidance for policymakers navigating contemporary security challenges.

Recommendations to Management Bodies on Organizing Measures to Counter Illegal Activities at the State Border

Vitalii Veretilnyk, Oleh Bashnianyn — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To provide recommendations to management bodies on organizing measures to counter illegal activities on the state border.

Method. The recommendations are based on an analytical method based on the assessment of facts and information related to countering illegal activities on the state border.

Findings. The study provides substantiated recommendations for countering illegal activities along the state border.

Theoretical implications. An analysis was conducted and corresponding recommendations were justified regarding measures to counter illegal activities at the state border.

Originality/Value: The novelty lies in the introduction of new mechanisms in the field of state border protection.

Future research: Further studies should elaborate scenarios of escalating situations along the state border.

Paper type. Theoretical.

Purpose: to provide recommendations to management bodies on organizing measures to counter illegal activities on the state border.

Design/Method/Approach (only for empirical papers): the recommendations are based on an analytical method based on the assessment of facts and information related to countering illegal activities on the state border.

Findings: an analysis was conducted and the relevant recommendations were substantiated on countering illegal activities on the state border.

Theoretical implications (if applicable): the recommendations allow for the introduction of new approaches to making management decisions by military management bodies and heads of state border protection units with sufficient adequacy.

Originality/Value: the novelty lies in the introduction of new mechanisms in the field of state border protection.

Future research: in the course of further research, it is advisable to work out scenarios of aggravation of the situation on the state border.

Papertype: theoretical.

Information Security and Digital Sovereignty: A Cyber–Crypto–Signal Defense Model for Indonesia

Tomy Arvianto, Mhd Halkis — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. This study explores how cyberspace security, cryptography, and signals intelligence can be integrated as the strategic foundation for Indonesia’s digital sovereignty.

Method. Adopting a qualitative research design, the study applies policy analysis and literature review of national cybersecurity regulations, defence doctrines, and international research. Data were examined using the Critical Capability–Critical Requirement–Critical Vulnerability (CC–CR–CV) framework to assess the contribution of each pillar to sovereign cyber defence.

Findings. The results indicate that Indonesia has strengthened its cybersecurity regulatory ecosystem but continues to face challenges, including fragmented command structures, dependency on foreign cryptographic technology, and limited signals-intelligence capacity. Integrating the Cyber–Crypto–Signal Triad enhances national resilience, data protection, and electromagnetic awareness, supporting proactive cyber defence and strategic autonomy.

Theoretical implications. The study advances digital sovereignty discourse by introducing a security-driven operational model that links cyber defence, cryptographic sovereignty, and spectrum dominance.

Practical implications. The paper recommends forming a National Cyber Council to unify command and control, accelerate local cyber-cryptographic development, and institutionalise integrated spectrum-intelligence capabilities.

Originality/Value: This research presents the Cyber–Crypto–Signal Triad as a novel approach to operationalising information security as an instrument of state power, moving beyond regulatory-centric perspectives.

Limitations: Reliance on qualitative analysis and publicly available policy documents limits empirical depth; future research should incorporate threat-intelligence datasets, comparative case studies, and quantitative capability metrics.

Paper type. Empirical.

Foresight of Imperial Consciousness: Historical and Psychological Archetypes and Strategic Narratives of Muscovy’s Information Counteraction

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 21:42:36 +0200

Purpose. The study aims to identify the historical and psychological origins of Russian imperial thinking, analyze the sociocultural and mental factors that sustain the reproduction of the authoritarian model of power in the Russian Federation, and develop approaches for building effective information and psychological influence strategies.

Method. The research is based on an interdisciplinary framework combining historical-psychological, public administration, security, and sociocultural analysis. Methods include content analysis of public narratives, comparative-historical analysis, psychological profiling of mass consciousness, and case studies of key historical epochs.

Findings. The study reveals the persistence of imperial archetypes within the collective consciousness of Russian society, which legitimize violence, sacralize authority, and reproduce tyrannical practices. Five key narrative strategies are formulated to facilitate the internal implosion of the Russian regime by eroding its symbolic legitimacy.

Theoretical implications. The research contributes to the theory of political psychology of imperial thinking, enhances understanding of the psychological resilience of authoritarian systems, and provides a foundation for developing modern cognitive influence strategies in the field of national security.

Paper type. Analytical, Applied.

Preparation of Ukrainian Citizens for National Resistance: Tasks of Military-Patriotic Education and Its Role in the System of Military Personnel Training

Evgen Kamalov — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to identify priority directions for the development of military-patriotic education in order to improve the quality of preparing citizens of Ukraine for national resistance, based on an analysis of its current state in Ukraine and a comparative examination of best practices in leading NATO and European Union member states under conditions of armed aggression.

Method. The research applies a comprehensive methodological approach that includes analysis of Ukrainian legal and regulatory acts, comparative analysis of foreign experience, historical periodization, system and structural analysis, and logical generalization of scientific and practical findings.

Findings. The study finds that military-patriotic education is a key component of the national resistance training system and a decisive factor in shaping citizens’ readiness and ability to defend the state. The necessity of its systematic, technologized, and value-oriented organization, adapted to national conditions and international best practices, is substantiated.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical contribution lies in refining the understanding of military-patriotic education as an integral element of national resistance and military personnel training, as well as in expanding its conceptual role within the national security framework.

Practical implications. The findings may be used by public authorities, the security and defense sector, and educational institutions to improve policies, programs, and methodologies for military-patriotic education and national resistance training.

Paper type. Analytical and conceptual research article with elements of comparative analysis.

New Geopolıtıcal Features of the South Caucasus Regıon

Zafar Nuri Najafov — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To identify the main geopolitical trends of the rapid transformations that have occurred in the security architecture of the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War.

Method. Historical, comparative analysis, systematic approach and structural analysis methods.

Findings. The connection of new geopolitical activity with proselytism in the South Caucasus is the leitmotif of this research work. Here we can focus on two trends. First, this is a very dangerous trend and can turn the region into a battlefield of extra-state and military alliances. Second, the classical threat model can be replaced by new regionalism principles based on economic cooperation. Overall, the confrontation-cooperation axis will continue its transformative role more rapidly in the formation of the new security architecture of the South Caucasus.

Theoretical implications. The Second Karabakh War had a serious impact on theoretical issues related to security in the South Caucasus. The traditional sphere of influence and threat model that has maintained itself in the South Caucasus for a century is currently undergoing a period of transformation. The regional geopolitical order is expanding due to new actors, the range of threats is expanding and increasingly originating from abroad. Despite the influx of external influences into the region, confidence in the creation of a unified security system among the countries of the region is growing.

Practical implications. The results of the Second Karabakh War have brought the South Caucasus out of its inertia. Geopolitical dualism is noticeable in the region. On the one hand, there is an expansion of the horizons of intense armament, military-technical cooperation between local states and new transregional actors, and even the transition of extra-state competition to this region. On the other hand, confident steps towards peace and peaceful coexistence are evident in the region. The achievement of reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the initiative of the United States and the transformation of the Zangezur corridor (TRIP) into the main object of this reconciliation creates the basis for the beginning of a new stage of regionalism in the South Caucasus, and the replacement of military rhetoric with heated disputes around regional corridors.

Value. This article is considered significant in terms of the new content of the geopolitical processes that took place in the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War, the radical transformation of traditional views, and the transformation of the region into a theater of extra-state conflict.

Paper type. Theoretical.

Analysis of the Readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Defend the State: Capabilities in the System of Military and National Security

Vadym Klymenko, Yurii Kliat, Oleh Nechaiev, Oleksandr Voitko, Oleh Temnyi — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Analysis and clarification of the term “readiness of the Armed Forces” for the defense of the state.

Method. To base on a systemic approach, which involves a holistic study of the content, structure and interrelationships of the elements of the training process in the interests of assessing and monitoring the level of readiness of the Armed Forces for the defense of the state. The study used a set of general scientific methods of cognition, in particular empirical methods (observation, comparative analysis) and theoretical (analysis, synthesis, generalization and explanation).

Practical value of the study. Considering the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the defense of the state as a process that unfolds over time should allow the calculation of “readiness” as an integral indicator that can change depending on the available resources. Under such conditions, the flexibility of managerial influence on the preparation process is manifested in comparing alternative options for measures, identifying excess costs, and shaping the trajectory of achieving a given level of readiness.

Future research. It is advisable to focus on analyzing the impact of external and internal factors on the process of preparing the Armed Forces for the defense of the state, as a result of whose interaction readiness emerges as an integral property of a complex socio-technical system. Decomposing the preparation process into individual subsystems that form the components of capabilities makes it possible to identify their functional interrelationships and to substantiate the composition and tasks of each subsystem in achieving the overall defense effect. Determining the priority of capability-building measures with due regard to assigned tasks and probable defense scenarios provides a methodological basis for developing a system of qualitative and quantitative readiness indicators necessary for planning, assessing, and adjusting the preparation of the Armed Forces for the defense of the state.

Paper type. Theoretical, practical.

Modelling the Overcoming of Enemy Engineering Barriers

Volodymyr Kotsyuruba, Oleg Khoptii — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Improvement of the semi-Markov mathematical model for overcoming enemy engineering obstacles, which, unlike existing models, takes into account the specifics of performing tasks to overcome enemy engineering obstacles, which are considered as a separate variant of an operation (battle).

Method. System analysis method, mathematical modelling method, Markov process theory.

Findings. An improved semi-Markov mathematical model for overcoming enemy barriers, which, unlike existing models, takes into account the probability indicators of the processes of passing through general military units, transferring passages and moving to reserve areas, providing combined fire support, radio-electronic support for clearing units, and the destruction of passage-making means.

Theoretical implications. Attention is paid to the specifics of performing demining tasks using the specific features of unmanned demining systems. The time parameters of remote identification of explosive objects and changes in the decision-making process using a decision support system are taken into account.

Recommendations on the Adaptation of the Regulatory and Legal Field in the Field of Military Security of Ukraine for the Implementation of Methodological Foundations for Assessing the State and Level of Military Security of the State

Andriy Ignatiev — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To develop recommendations for the adaptation of the regulatory and legal framework in the field of Ukraine’s military security through the implementation of methodological foundations for assessing the state and level of the state’s military security.

Method. The research is based on a comprehensive methodological approach that includes analysis of Ukrainian regulatory and legal acts in the field of national and military security; the comparative legal method; the system analysis method; and the logical-structural method.

Results of the research. The research results include: a proposed system of national interests in the field of military security; drafted amendments to Ukrainian legislation in the field of national and military security; clarification of key concepts (state and level of military security, national interests); identification of principles for the functioning of the military security system; substantiation of a mechanism for cyclical monitoring, including through situational centers; and justification of the need for a separate section of the law dedicated to the state’s military security system.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical value lies in the development of a conceptual model of the state’s military security system; the substantiation of new approaches to determining the state and level of military security based on national interests; clarification of the conceptual and categorical framework, which was previously fragmented; and the advancement of scientific foundations for the legal support of military security under conditions of large-scale armed aggression.

Practical implications. The practical significance is reflected in the possibility to: legally formalize procedures for assessing the state of military security; improve the effectiveness of interaction among actors in the security and defense sector; strengthen the operational response to military threats at the national level; standardize terminology and management approaches in the activities of public authorities; and ensure integration with NATO systems based on the principle of interoperability.

Paper type. Analytical research article with elements of applied legislative design.

The Experience of Using Innovative Technologies in the Training Process of Military Pedagogical Personnel

Mujkan Mammadzada — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To scientifically analyze the theoretical foundations and practical experience of using innovative technologies in the training process of military pedagogical personnel and to evaluate their effectiveness.

Method. The methodological approach of the article is based on the analysis of existing scientific literature, the comparative analysis of international and national military education practices, and the application of observation methods in pedagogical practice.

Theoretical implications. The study revealed that the integration of innovative technologies into the training process enhances the flexibility of pedagogical models and approaches, thereby renewing traditional concepts of military education. This approach contributes to the creation of an adaptive, interactive, and learner-centered training environment that supports the development of cadets’ knowledge, skills, and competencies. At the same time, from a theoretical perspective, the use of artificial intelligence, simulation, and digital resources lays the foundation for new methodological directions in the advancement of military pedagogy.

Practical implications. Cadets who engage with simulation and virtual reality technologies adapt more rapidly to real combat conditions and develop their decision-making skills. Through e-learning platforms, military pedagogical personnel can continuously update their knowledge and construct individualized training trajectories. Artificial intelligence-based analytical systems identify the strengths and weaknesses of participants in the training process, thereby creating more effective learning opportunities. At the same time, the application of innovative technologies enhances the operational efficiency of training and fosters the consolidation of officers’ teamwork, leadership, and strategic planning skills.

Value. This article systematizes the theoretical and practical foundations of innovative technologies in the training process of military pedagogical personnel, thereby creating a methodological basis for future research and applications.

Preparation of Critical Infrastructure Facilities for Protection Against the Armed Forces of the Aggressor State

Oleg Sokolovsky — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to analyze the factors influencing the preparation of critical infrastructure facilities for defense and their protection during the adversary’s offensive operations, to develop proposals for improving the protection of critical infrastructure facilities, and to determine the role of central and local public authorities in this process.

Method. The study employs a set of general scientific and specialized methods, including analysis and synthesis of regulatory and legal acts in the field of national security and critical infrastructure protection; logical-structural and comparative analysis to develop and compare protection models; a systems approach to assess the role of critical infrastructure in ensuring state resilience; and the generalization of practical experience to formulate applied recommendations for preparing facilities and territories for defense under martial law.

Findings. The study identifies the main threats to critical infrastructure facilities under conditions of armed aggression, reveals shortcomings in the existing protection system in both peacetime and wartime, and substantiates the need to establish an effective coordination hierarchy. The roles of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the National Guard of Ukraine, and public authorities in ensuring the protection of critical infrastructure facilities are defined, and practical measures for preparing facilities and territories for defense, including the involvement of resistance movement forces, are proposed.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical contribution of the study lies in deepening scholarly understanding of critical infrastructure protection as a component of national security and defense planning in conditions of armed conflict, as well as in advancing military science perspectives on asymmetric forms of warfare and state resilience during martial law.

Practical implications. The practical implications of the study consist in the applicability of its findings for public authorities and military command bodies in improving the regulatory framework for critical infrastructure protection, in defense and mobilization planning, in organizing the defense of facilities and territories, and in the training of officers and specialists of Ukraine’s security and defense sector.

Type of article: theoretical.

Improved Aggregate Repair Method Based on the Survivability Criterion

Yaroslav Pavlov — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Enhancing the Effectiveness of Combat Readiness Restoration of Weapons and Military Equipment in Combat Operations through an Improved Aggregate Repair Process Based on the Maximization of Survivability.

Method. The study employs an analytical-algorithmic approach that includes damage assessment, evaluation of structural integrity, verification of spare-unit availability, and repair-time forecasting. The obtained data, through combat capability and survivability indices, enable the selection of the most effective sequence of aggregate restoration.

Findings. An improved aggregate repair method has been developed that integrates damage assessment, structural integrity evaluation, spare-unit availability analysis, and repair-time forecasting. This method enhances the operational efficiency of restoring automotive and armored vehicles according to the survivability criterion and reduces inefficient resource expenditures under combat conditions.

Theoretical value of the study. The study establishes an integrated theoretical model of aggregate repair that employs combat capability and survivability coefficients. These coefficients provide a quantitative description of how damage levels affect the recoverability of armored vehicles. The proposed approach deepens the scientific understanding of military equipment survivability and expands the methodological foundations for optimizing repair processes under combat conditions.

Originality / Research value. A new aggregate repair method is proposed that, for the first time, integrates combat capability indices, survivability coefficients, and repair-time prediction into a unified information-based ranking system. This approach enables a scientifically grounded selection of the optimal repair sequence, significantly enhancing the effectiveness of armored vehicle recovery in dynamic combat environments.

Future research. A new aggregate repair method is proposed that, for the first time, integrates combat capability indices, survivability coefficients, and repair-time prediction into a unified information-based ranking system. This approach enables a scientifically grounded selection of the optimal repair sequence, significantly enhancing the effectiveness of armored vehicle recovery in dynamic combat environments.

Paper type. Research article.

Content Analysis of the Russian Tactics in Terms of the Use of Reconnaissance and Strike Complexes in Large-Scale Combat Operations

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Publication of the results of research into the Russian Tactics in terms of the use of reconnaissance and strike complexes in large-scale combat operations.

Method. The main methods of research are the method of content analysis and synthesis.

Findings. Content analysis of Russian Federation military publication showed that the main trend in the Russian Tactics in large-scale combat operations is the widespread use of temporary and organic reconnaissance and strike complexes from the field artillery brigade (regiment). Maximizing the effectiveness of their use will be achieved through continuous artillery reconnaissance and discrete fire support during reconnaissance and strike operations. It has been established that in order to achieve a synergistic effect from the use of artillery reconnaissance unit and fire support units, the Russian commanding will conduct reconnaissance and strike operations in clearly defined areas of responsibility for reconnaissance and fire support. Scientific results obtained by content analysis may be applied in Corps staff during the planning of fire support and field artillery operations in large-scale combat operations.

Theoretical implications. The main results of research on the topic of this article are the identification of trends in maximizing the effectiveness of the use of reconnaissance and strike complexes in large-scale combat operations from the field artillery brigade (regiment) of the Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Army. The scientific results of the applied theoretical research were obtained using the content analysis method, which by its nature allows identifying causal relationships and patterns inherent in the processes studied in the theory of military art and military management, identify their priority and mutual influence in order to justify a set of basic methods of conducting large-scale combat operations or methods of fire support and field artillery operations during applied theoretical research on military management of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Paper type. Scientific and theoretical article.

Analysis of the Organization of Logistics Support of Advanced Positions in Modern Conditions of Combat Actions

Ruslan Bulhakov, Daria Puhachova, Iryna Zamkova — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To analyze the features of the organization of logistical, in particular food, support of forward positions of military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in modern conditions of combat operations in the presence of constant reconnaissance and fire influence of the enemy.

Method. The study used methods of analysis and synthesis to study the structure of logistical support of military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The descriptive method was used to record the real conditions of the combat situation and the practice of supporting units. The comparative method made it possible to compare traditional and alternative methods of delivering material and technical resources to the zone of direct combat operations. The systemic approach was used to consider logistics as a complex multi-level system. The method of generalizing combat experience and empirical observation methods were also used.

Findings. It was established that traditional methods of logistical support in the conditions of modern warfare are ineffective and dangerous. Critical vulnerability of ground transportation routes in the zone of active combat operations was identified. The impossibility of systematic use of regular cooking facilities at forward positions has been proven. The peculiarities of organizing personnel nutrition using dry rations have been determined. The practice of unmanned delivery of logistical equipment to forward positions has been analyzed. Optimal approaches to packaging and cargo nomenclature have been established. It has been shown that decentralized logistics solutions reduce the risks of losses of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The feasibility of minimizing human participation in dangerous logistical operations has been substantiated. Key factors of the effectiveness of unmanned support have been determined. Practical recommendations for the adaptation of logistics units have been formulated.

Theoretical implications. The study expands scientific ideas about logistics in conditions of high-tech war. The role of food supply in maintaining the combat stability of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been clarified. Factors affecting the survivability of logistics chains have been systematized. The transformation of logistics processes under the influence of modern means of destruction has been revealed. The results can be used in further scientific research. The conclusions obtained are interdisciplinary in nature.

Practical value of the study. The materials of the article can be used in the activities of the logistics units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The recommendations are suitable for planning the provision of forward positions. The conclusions can be applied in the training of personnel. The proposed approaches contribute to reducing losses during logistical operations. The results are useful for improving regulatory documents. The study is of an applied nature for the conditions of real combat operations.

Originality of the study. The article is based on a direct generalization of modern combat experience in the logistical provision of forward positions.

Future research. Further research should be directed at quantitatively assessing the effectiveness of unmanned logistics.

Paper type. Empirical.

The Potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the Foundation for Ensuring State Security in the Activities of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To determine the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which can be used at a certain time (period) to solve the tasks of Ukraine's defense.

Method. The methodological Basis of the study based on the integration of two approaches, which are based on the theory of combat potentials and capabilities-based planning (the ability to perform assigned tasks) and the adaptation of these methods to wartime conditions, using research methods - general scientific empirical (statistical description, comparative analysis) and theoretical (analysis, synthesis, generalization, mathematical modeling, induction, deduction, explanation, classification).

Practical value of the study. lies in the possibility of using two methods (based on the theory of combat potentials and on the assessment of capabilities) when determining the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through their mutual integration when using one of the methods for both one's own troops (forces) and the enemy's troops (forces).

Future research. Future research will focus on domain-specific comparative evaluation of weapon systems based on objective technical-tactical parameters to derive standardized coefficients for force composition planning and to assess mission effectiveness through combat and special capability indicators.

Paper type. Theoretical, practical.

Chronology of Terrorist Attacks Across the Territory of Ukraine by Strike Drones in January 2025

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Analytical reconstruction of the complete chronology of Ukraine’s terrorist attacks using strike unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in January 2025 based on open official sources, as well as the formation of a generalized picture of their intensity, spatiotemporal distribution, and targeting of various infrastructure elements.

Findings. Periods of highest drone-use intensity were identified, along with the main directions of attacks and types of objects affected. Temporal patterns in the timing of strikes were revealed, as well as typical scenarios of employing strike UAVs in terms of sequencing and combining attacks.

Theoretical implications. The research enhances scientific understanding of modern forms of terrorist influence involving strike UAVs and their role in escalating security threats. The proposed approach to the chronology and systematization of attacks provides a basis for further development of theoretical models for analyzing drone threats, spatiotemporal dynamics of attacks, and vulnerability assessments of critical infrastructure elements.

Practical implications. The obtained results can be used to improve the civil protection system and enhance the effectiveness of governmental responses to strike-UAV threats.

Originality/Value. The work offers an analytical foundation for further examination of the evolution of drone attacks and the development of strategic approaches to their mitigation.

Research limitations/Future research. Limitations arise from reliance on open official data, which may be incomplete, fragmented, or reported with delays, as well as from the absence of detailed technical and tactical characteristics of the UAVs used. Possible discrepancies in reporting among various agencies and regional structures may also affect chronological accuracy. Future research may focus on expanding the information base through the integration of geoinformation data, statistics from air-defense systems, analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of drone attacks, and the development of predictive models of attack intensity and directions.

Paper type. Review.

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Devices for Monitoring the Stability of Building Structures During Rescue Operations in Debris Zones

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To identify the most effective equipment for rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in order to enhance safety and improve the efficiency of rescue operations in destruction zones.

Method. An analytical review of global experience in the use of sensor technologies during rescue operations, an examination of their technical characteristics, operating principles, and practical applications, as well as a comparative analysis of their effectiveness during rescue work in areas of structural collapse.

Findings. Six innovative devices for structural condition monitoring were selected. It was established that the Leader WASP and Leader SENTRY B1 are the most effective for timely warning of hazardous displacements and for creating safe working zones for rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. It was also determined that no single device is universal — their effectiveness depends on the type of damage, access conditions, required response speed, and the scale of destruction.

Theoretical implications. the work systematizes modern technical solutions for monitoring the structural stability of buildings, summarizing international experience with sensor systems and forming a scientific foundation for implementing multi-level structural monitoring during rescue operations.

Practical implications. the obtained results allow for informed selection of devices for real-time monitoring of unstable structures, increase the safety of rescuers, reduce the risk of secondary collapses, and enable the development of combined monitoring systems adapted to wartime conditions (mobility, autonomy, rapid deployment, and suitability for hard-to-reach locations).

Originality. For the first time in the context of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, a comprehensive comparative analysis of devices with different technological principles (inclinometers, accelerometers, crack gauges, laser systems, and multiparametric monitoring devices) has been conducted, allowing for the development of practical recommendations for their implementation in rescue operations.

Research limitations. The limitations concern the absence of full-scale field testing of the devices under real collapse conditions, as well as the dependence of device effectiveness on accessibility and the quality of initial data regarding the structural condition. Future research may focus on integrated sensor systems and their operational testing.

Paper type. Review.

Using Digital Technologies to Ensure Fire and Environmental Safety in Document Storage, Cultural and Historical Value Institutions

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose of this work is to develop approaches aimed at preventing emergencies in institutions responsible for storing documents, cultural, and historical assets, based on the use of digital technologies to ensure their fire and environmental safety.

Method. An analytical approach based on a review of modern scientific sources related to the digitalization of civil protection, fire detection systems, the Internet of Things, and advanced environmental monitoring technologies.

Findings. An improved emergency response algorithm has been developed based on rapid data acquisition from interconnected sensors (temperature, humidity, acoustic) via the Internet of Things. Tools for online staff training and internal communication are proposed, increasing personnel awareness and readiness for incident response. A comprehensive system has been formed to enhance the prevention, detection, and localization of fires and environmental threats in institutions preserving cultural and historical assets.

Theoretical implications. The study extends theoretical approaches to fire and environmental safety by integrating IoT concepts, digital monitoring, and intelligent platforms. It substantiates the compatibility of modern digital technologies with civil protection regulations, providing a foundation for further research on digital safety systems in socially and culturally significant institutions.

Practical implications. The proposed solutions are applicable in museums, libraries, archives, and similar institutions. Their accessibility is ensured through the use of low-cost sensors, open platforms, and widely used messaging tools. Implementation improves environmental and fire monitoring, accelerates coordination among responsible staff, enhances personnel competence, and enables alternative alert channels when conventional mobile communication is unavailable.

Originality. This study is the first to propose an integrated approach combining IoT technologies, acoustic fire suppression, digital environmental monitoring, and online educational tools for cultural heritage institutions. The originality lies in the synergy of technical and communication solutions, forming a flexible and cost-effective safety system suitable for high-risk and resource-constrained environments.

Research limitations. The solutions require adaptation to diverse architectural and technical conditions and lack experimental validation in real institutions. Future research should focus on developing and testing IoT prototypes, updating regulatory frameworks, integrating artificial intelligence for risk prediction, and assessing the economic feasibility of digital safety ecosystems.

Paper type. Review.

Aspect of Directions for Improving the Process of Psychosocial Risks Management in the Workplace

Аndrii Bochkovskyi, Nаtalia Sapozhnikova, Tetyana Kashulska — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Aspects of improving the principles of managing psychosocial risks in the workplace, based on an analysis of the recommendations of the ISO 45003:2021 and ISO 45001:2018 standards.

Method. The study used scientific and technical literature analysis to define the problem, objectives, and goals of the study, as well as structural analysis of the content of international standards ISO 45003:2021 and ISO 45001:2018 to identify problems and areas for improvement in the principles of psychosocial risk management in the workplaces of enterprises, institutions, and organizations.

Findings. An analysis of studies on the effectiveness of occupational health and safety management systems in minimizing occupational health hazards in the workplace worldwide has been conducted. It has been established that modern occupational health and safety management systems are least effective in preventing mental health hazards among workers. The reason for this inefficiency is the imperfection of the principles of psychosocial risk management in the workplace, in particular the imperfection of the process of identifying negative psychosocial factors, the lack of methods for the objective implementation of Planning and Action procedures, as well as the means of conducting Monitoring and Correction procedures of the Shukart-Deming cycle.

Theoretical implications. It has theoretical value in developing ways to improve the principles of managing psychosocial risks in the workplace.

Practical implications. The results of the research can be used to improve the content and structure of the international standards ISO 45003:2021 and ISO 45001:2018.

Originality: Ways to improve the principles of managing psychosocial risks in the workplace have been identified and proposed, in accordance with the recommendations of ISO 45003:2021 and ISO 45001:2018 standards.

Paper type. Conceptual.

Directions for Improving the Spatial Planning and Design Solutions of Civil Defence Structures

Аndrii Bochkovskyi, Nаtalia Sapozhnikova, Maksym Koval — Sun, 04 Jan 2026 21:31:14 +0200

Purpose. Development of areas for improvement in the design and spatial planning of civil defence structures based on their preliminary analysis in accordance with the requirements for enhancing their protective properties.

Method. The study used a method of structural analysis of the content of standards regulating the construction and arrangement of civil defence shelters for the protection of the population during the occurrence and development of various types of emergencies, as well as an analysis of scientific and technical literature to identify the problem, objectives and goals of the study, and areas for improvement in the spatial planning and structural design of civil defence shelters.

Findings. An analysis was conducted of the requirements for ensuring the spatial planning and structural design of various types of civil defence structures in accordance with the content of the relevant state standards, namely shelters and dual-purpose structures with the protective properties of shelters; anti-radiation shelters and dual-purpose structures with the protective properties of anti-radiation shelters; the simplest shelters; and rapidly erected protective structures. Directions for their improvement have been developed, which, in particular, provide for the integration of life support and automation systems, the optimisation of evacuation routes, and digital monitoring of parameters.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical value lies in the development of areas for improvement in the spatial planning and structural design of civil defence structures.

Practical implications. The results of the research can be used to improve the content and structure of standards DBN V.2.2-5:2023 and DSTU 8773:2018.

Originality: Directions for improving the spatial planning and structural design of civil defence structures have been identified and proposed in order to increase their resilience in protecting the population during the occurrence and development of various types of emergencies.

Paper type. Conceptual.

The Chemical and Radiation Diffusion as the Issue of Impact on Weaponry and Military Equipment: Threats, Results and Preventive Measures

Artem Karpus, Ali Kenherli — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To analytically substantiate the role of chemical and radiation-stimulated diffusion as dominant mechanisms of material degradation in weaponry and military equipment under modern combat conditions, and to develop evidence-based preventive measures for maintaining their operational reliability and combat effectiveness.

Method. The research utilizes theoretical analysis and modeling based on fundamental diffusion laws, including Fick's laws (describing diffusion flux and concentration gradient) and the Arrhenius equation (addressing the dependence of diffusion rate on temperature and activation energy). It also includes an analysis of radiation-stimulated diffusion (RSD) through vacancies and interstitial atoms.

Findings. The study identified a critical impact of diffusion processes on WME, specifically: hydrogen embrittlement of artillery barrels and aviation chassis; degradation of electronics (microchips, GPS) due to radiation; changes in the properties of lubricants and rubber seals; and the loss of protective properties of armor due to radiation-induced chromium segregation. It justifies the necessity of predicting the residual resource of equipment in combat zones.

Theoretical implications. The research deepens scientific knowledge regarding the synergistic effect of chemical degradation and radiation hardening on the survivability of WME systems. It develops a comprehensive approach to evaluating RSD in structural materials, such as MIL-A-12560 armor steels, under modern combat conditions.

Paper type. Research.

Quantifying the Weather Impact on Urban Transport Reliability using XGBoost and SHAP

Yurii Matseliukh, Vasyl Lytvyn — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose of the work is to develop and verify a method for quantitatively assessing the impact of a complex of meteorological factors on operational failures of public transport.

Method. The study is based on machine learning methods. The high-precision ensemble gradient boosting algorithm XGBoost was used to predict delays. For an in-depth analysis of risk factors and overcoming the «black box» problem, an advanced interpreted machine learning tool SHAP was used, which can establish the contribution of each factor to a specific forecast.

Findings. It was established that meteorological conditions are a significant, nonlinear risk factor. The analysis showed that the greatest threat to traffic stability is posed by temperature anomalies (a sharp decrease), significant precipitation and high wind speed. Using the proposed method, it was proven that the impact of weather is heterogeneous, i.e. insignificant under normal conditions and a strong trigger of large-scale failures during rush hours.

Practical implications. The results of the study create a scientific basis for the development of information systems to support decision-making in the field of crisis management. The proposed method makes it possible to move from responding to changes that have already occurred to implementing preventive measures: informing passengers in advance, optimizing resources and increasing the resilience of the transport system to climate threats.

Paper type. Empirical.

Lane Segmentation to Optimize Traffic Flow

Liubomyr Drevych — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. A comprehensive analysis of modern neural network architectures for lane segmentation aimed at determining their potential for optimizing traffic flows and evaluating their applicability in intelligent traffic management systems.

Method. A comparative analysis of five state-of-the-art deep learning architectures was conducted: LaneATT with an attention mechanism for keypoint detection; ERFNet and ENet as efficient real-time architectures; PINet for instance-based lane segmentation; and CondLaneNet with conditional lane shape generation. The study examines the specific characteristics of each architecture, their computational efficiency, and accuracy. The impact of segmentation quality on traffic flow optimization metrics is also analyzed.

Findings. The results show that CondLaneNet provides the highest segmentation accuracy and the best reconstruction of lane geometry under low traffic load and simple road topology, whereas LaneATT demonstrates slightly lower peak accuracy but exhibits smoother degradation in segmentation quality as traffic density increases. ENet and ERFNet provide a reasonable compromise between accuracy and computational complexity, making them suitable for real-time systems with limited resources. PINet, due to keypoint-based representations and clustering, demonstrates superior robustness to occlusion and complex road scenarios, maintaining a larger proportion of baseline quality under medium and high traffic conditions.

Practical implications. The findings support informed selection of the optimal architecture for specific application scenarios in intelligent transportation systems.

Paper type. Theoretical.

Methodological Approaches to Military-Economic Assessment Creation of a Comprehensive Information Protection System Automated Control Systems

Valerii Kraynov, Yaroslav Melnyk — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To improve the scientific and methodological framework of military-economic evaluation of managerial decisions in the process of designing and developing an integrated information security system, based on the proposed methodology, for advanced automated command and control systems.

Method. The study employs a systems approach and the method of military-economic evaluation to optimize the design of an integrated information security system in automated command and control systems.

Findings. An improved military-economic evaluation methodology is proposed, enabling a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of alternative configurations of an integrated information security system, taking into account the cost of losses, system development expenditures, and the additional costs imposed on the adversary.

Theoretical implications. The results of the study contribute to a deeper understanding of the impact of armed conflicts on the national economy, particularly on macroeconomic indicators, the financial sector, foreign economic relations, the social sphere, and other key dimensions.

Practical implications. The proposed military-economic evaluation methodology can be applied to substantiate decisions related to the design, modernization, and implementation of integrated information security systems in automated command and control systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the aim of improving resource efficiency and enhancing the level of information security.

Value. The study introduces an integrated quantitative model for evaluating the effectiveness of an integrated information security system, taking into account the specific conditions of wartime and resource constraints.

Research limitations. The military-economic evaluation methodology is based on expert judgments and assumptions regarding threat parameters and the effectiveness of protective measures, which may reduce the accuracy of the results in situations characterized by limited or unavailable statistical data during active hostilities.

Papertype. Theoretical.

A Systemic Approach to the Scientific and Technical Support of the Operation of Military Information Systems

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Systematization of problem areas in scientific and technical support for operating military information systems and justification of approaches to creating an effective support system considering strategic and operational management levels.

Method. The method of system analysis, generalization of national and international (NATO) experience in information systems support, as well as structural and functional modeling of operation and support processes were applied. Information, functional, and conceptual models were defined.

Findings. The main support tasks have been identified, a two-level support organization model (strategic and operational levels) has been proposed, the general structure of the information support model has been developed, and priority directions for improving the regulatory framework and implementing an automated information system for operation support have been defined.

Theoretical implications. The article systematizes approaches to modeling support processes of information systems in the military domain, summarizes modern theoretical approaches to assessing the effectiveness and cost of support, and complements the methodology of information systems life cycle management.

Practical implications. The results can be used for the development of automated support systems for military information systems, improvement of the regulatory framework in the field of information systems operation, and enhancement of the efficiency of implementing technical equipment programs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Value. The study is one of the first in Ukraine to offer an integrated approach to scientific and technical support for the operation of information systems, combining strategic and operational levels, modern approaches to cost management, risk management, and digital monitoring.

Papertype. Theoretical.

Analysis, Assessment, and Mitigation of Risks in Voice Biometric Authentication Systems

Dmytro Sabodashko, Khrystyna Ruda, Yuliia Oliiarnyk, Andrii Nestor — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To develop and substantiate a formalized methodology for comprehensive analysis and quantitative assessment of risk criticality in voice biometric authentication systems, taking into account the architectural features of embedding models and the adaptive nature of modern cyber threats.

Method. The study employs a combination of analytical, quantitative, and applied research methods aimed at the formalized analysis and prioritization of risks in voice biometric authentication systems, considering their architectural characteristics and the contemporary threat landscape. The core research method is a quantitative–analytical assessment of risk criticality based on a modified risk management model.

Findings. It has been determined that the most critical threats to voice authentication systems are attacks involving synthesized and cloned speech, which are characterized by high levels of probability, impact, and adaptability. It is shown that the integration of a liveness detection module based on the analysis of nonlinear spectral–phase characteristics of the audio signal makes it possible to significantly reduce the integral risk criticality of deepfake attacks and to shift them from a critical level to a moderate or acceptable one.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical contribution lies in advancing approaches to the formalized analysis of cyber risks in biometric systems by incorporating the adaptive nature of modern attacks. The proposed model extends classical approaches to biometric security assessment beyond traditional accuracy metrics such as FAR and FRR.

Practical implications. The practical significance of the research consists in the possibility of using the proposed methodology for threat prioritization at the design and software implementation stages of voice biometric authentication systems. The obtained results can be applied by developers to justify the selection of protective mechanisms, in particular liveness detection modules, in order to enhance the cyber resilience of such systems.

Value. The study contributes by forming a comprehensive approach to assessing risk criticality in voice authentication systems that combines architectural analysis, quantitative evaluation, and the substantiation of software-based countermeasures. The proposed approach provides a foundation for systematic risk structuring and for improving the soundness of engineering decisions in the field of voice biometrics.

Future research. Further research should focus on automating the assessment of the threat adaptability coefficient, expanding the set of features for detecting synthesized speech, and experimentally validating the proposed methodology on real industrial voice authentication systems.

Papertype. Analytical and applied study.

Research on the Penetration of a Multilayer Protective Element by a 7.62-mm Bullet B-32

Serhii Bisyk, Oleksandr Nakonechnui — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Research on the bulletproof resistance of multilayer protective elements with different options for arranging the layers of materials before being hit by a B-32 armor-piercing bullet.

Method: Numerical modeling, experiment.

Findings. The maximum relative error between the full-scale experiment and numerical modeling, in terms of penetration depth values, does not exceed 7% for armor steel and 8% for aluminum. The error value obtained between the experimental and numerical results allows us to apply the developed mathematical model of the numerical solution of penetration by an armor-piercing bullet B-32 of protective multilayer elements, both for assessing the level of ballistic resistance and for conducting parametric studies to select rational parameters of the design of a multilayer protective element. The obtained dependences of the change in the yield point show that its increase for armor steel leads to a proportional decrease in the penetration depth. For an aluminum alloy, such a decrease is not linear, which allows us to state that the obtained rational values of the yield point are no more than 300-350 MPa, since a further increase in the yield point does not lead to a significant decrease in penetration but significantly increases the cost of such an aluminum alloy. According to the results of the studies, it was established that combining the layers of the protective element in different sequences allows us to obtain different values of bulletproof resistance. Of the evaluated variants of multilayer protective elements, the most resistant to penetration are samples in which the first layer has high strength (layer of armor steel) and is supported by a layer of aluminum alloy. Combining a multilayer protective element in variants of the front layer of aluminum shows that such samples have substandard damage. The use of the first front layer of armor steel gives a better result compared to the use of two equivalent thickness layers of armor steel with an aluminum alloy layer between them.

Theoretical implications. The results obtained expand scientific understanding of the mechanisms of armor-piercing bullets penetrating multilayer metal barriers and the influence of physical and mechanical characteristics of materials on the penetration process. The developed and verified numerical model can be used for further theoretical and parametric research in the field of ballistic protection.

Practical implications. The use of multilayer protective elements with a combination of armor steel and aluminum alloys allows to increase the level of bulletproof protection of existing armored vehicles without a significant increase in overall dimensions and with a slight increase in mass. An additional layer of aluminum alloy also increases the anti-fragmentation resistance of the structure.

Originality. The originality of the work lies in the complex combination of full-scale experiments and numerical modeling to assess the penetration of multilayer protective elements by the B-32 armor-piercing bullet, as well as in determining the rational parameters of the materials and the order of their arrangement, taking into account both ballistic efficiency and mass characteristics.

Research limitations. The study was conducted for a specific type of threat — the 7.62 mm B-32 armor-piercing bullet. In the numerical simulation, only the bullet core was considered, without taking into account the jacket. A limited number of materials (Armox 500 and alloy 5083 H111) and variants of layer thicknesses and configurations were considered. The final assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed designs requires extended full-scale tests.

Paper type: Review, scientific-practical.

Methodology for Assessing the Effectiveness of Comprehensive Review Measures in Ukraine's Security and Defense Sector

Oleg Surkov, Serhii Yasenko — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of comprehensive security and defense sector reviews as a results-based management (RBM) tool and a mechanism for evaluating public policy in the field of defense.

Method. The research employs systems analysis, Results-Based Management (RBM), monitoring and evaluation (M&E) approaches, Management-by-Objectives (MBO), a three-level KPI framework, and a modified weak-link principle to identify critical elements in the performance of review measures. The methodology is based on analysis of regulatory documents, process modelling of the comprehensive review cycle, expert assessment techniques, and formalisation of standardised evaluation algorithms.

Findings. A unified methodology for assessing the effectiveness of a comprehensive review of Ukraine's security and defense sector is proposed, covering: (1) identification and classification of measures, tasks, stages, and procedures; (2) determination of expected results and effects; (3) development of a three-level system of performance indicators; (4) analysis of bottlenecks; (5) aggregation of indicators and formulation of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the comprehensive review. It is shown how the results of the assessment can be integrated into program and project planning, defense programs, and public policy cycles.

Theoretical implications. For the first time, a formalized approach to assessing the effectiveness of comprehensive review measures in Ukraine's security and defense sector has been proposed, based on RBM and KPI and taking into account the specific characteristics of Ukraine's security and defense sector.

Practical implications. The methodology can be used by the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, defense agencies, and other government authorities to evaluate the effectiveness of policies, programs, and decisions, as well as to improve the quality of defense planning.

Originality/Value. It consists in creating a methodological basis for transforming the culture of defense management in Ukraine. The work ensures the transition from a formal reporting process to adaptive performance management, which allows synchronizing strategic goals with resources, increasing the transparency of defense planning, and strengthening the institutional resilience of the security and defense sector in the face of modern threats.

Papertype. Theoretical and applied.

Research into the housing system for servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine and comparative analysis with the experience of Canada and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Vitalii Yavorskyi — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To conduct a comparative legal, organizational, and financial analysis of the housing support system for Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel and the experience of Canada and the United Kingdom — leading NATO member states — and, based on this analysis, to develop well-grounded recommendations.

Method. Methods of system analysis, synthesis, deduction and induction, analogy and comparison.

Findings. A comprehensive overview of the housing system for Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel is presented, along with its comparison to foreign models. The advantages of these systems include centralized management through a single authority, the use of digital services, and market-based instruments to increase efficiency and reduce budget expenditures.

Theoretical implications. The results provide a theoretical basis for further research in military social policy and public administration, supporting the development of interdisciplinary approaches. The study establishes a typology of housing systems in different countries and deepens the comparative analysis of international experience.

Practical implications. Based on the analysis of national practice and international experience, recommendations have been developed to improve the housing policy for the accommodation of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel. The proposals include the introduction of digital services, optimization of the organizational structure, and new mechanisms for housing provision and credit support. The results can be used for managerial decision-making and serve as a basis for regulatory amendments.

Originality/Value. The study presents the current housing system for Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel and compares it with practices of leading NATO member states. It identifies common features and differences between the models and provides a comprehensive understanding of housing policy as a component of social protection for military personnel.

Research limitations/Future research. The analysis of the regulatory framework is limited to the period up to October 2025, which does not include possible future legislative changes regarding housing support for military personnel. Further research should focus on improving the current regulatory framework or developing a new one in this field.

Papertype. Theoretical.

Organization of Military Infrastructure Restoration after Combat: Methods, Priorities, and KEV Experience

Oleksandr Frolov, Serhii Kaplun, Serhii Zharykov, Serhii Hutsan — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To determine methodological approaches, priorities, and practical principles of organizing the restoration of destroyed military infrastructure in the postwar period based on the generalization of the experience of housing and maintenance departments, as well as to form a substantiated model of restoration process management considering resource, technical, and socio-economic factors.

Method. Analytical, systemic, comparative, and structural-functional research methods were used, which made it possible to comprehensively assess the problems of military facility restoration management, resource support, and interagency interaction.

Findings. A methodological approach to determining the priority of facility restoration is substantiated based on strategic significance, degree of destruction, availability of material, financial, and labor resources, as well as socio-economic consequences. A prioritization model is proposed that allows for the development of substantiated restoration plans at various levels of governance, from the operational-tactical level to the national level. The principles of prioritization, a management decision-making algorithm, and proposals for integrating systems of technical supervision and quality control are formulated.

Value: The study can be applied in the practical activities of military infrastructure authorities, housing and maintenance departments, military command bodies, and local authorities in planning and implementing measures for the restoration of destroyed facilities. The proposed approaches will contribute to increasing the efficiency of restoration, rational use of resources, and ensuring the continuity of defense facility operation.

Paper type. Scientific and analytical.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Internal Audit in the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine: An Integrated Approach Based on KPIs and Results-Based Management

Oleksandr Shpytal — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To substantiate and develop a methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of internal audit in the system of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine based on key performance indicators and the Results-Based Management (RBM) model, enabling its transformation from a control and oversight body into a strategic partner and a catalyst for positive change within the defence sector.

Method. Analysis and synthesis.

Findings. A comprehensive matrix of key performance indicators (KPIs) for the internal audit of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has been developed, integrating strategic and operational indicators across four dimensions: value for key stakeholders, operational efficiency of internal processes, staff development, and effectiveness of resource management. A logical RBM model has been constructed to reflect the “value creation chain” of internal audit, from inputs and activities to outputs, outcomes, and long-term impact. A key risk—namely, the “performance gap” between the preparation of audit reports and their actual implementation and impact on processes within the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine—has been identified. A roadmap for implementing an integrated performance assessment system is proposed, covering the stages of readiness assessment, development, pilot implementation, and staff training.

Theoretical implications. Two internationally recognized management concepts—KPIs based on the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and Results-Based Management (RBM)—have been integrated and adapted to form a unified, logically grounded framework for assessing the effectiveness of internal audit in the public sector, particularly within the defence domain. The study harmonizes two audit paradigms: the national paradigm (State Internal Financial Control), traditionally oriented toward control, and the international paradigm, focused on value creation and strategic partnership, proposing a model in which effective control is viewed as a necessary condition for value creation.

Practical implications. Applied tools have been developed and presented, including a KPI matrix (Table 1), an RBM logical model (Table 2), and a transformation plan (Table 3), aimed at strengthening and enhancing the capacity of internal audit within the defence sector.

Paper type. Theoretical.

The Role of Methodological Approaches in Assessing the Effectiveness of Military-Economic Forecasting

Iryna Chernyshova, Vitalii Busel — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To analyze and systematize methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of military-economic forecasting and to determine their content, objectives, and role in the defense planning process under conditions of increased uncertainty in the security environment and limited economic resources of the state.

Method. The methodological framework of the study is based on an integrated combination of systemic, scenario-based, comparative, indicative, economic–mathematical, information-analytical, and expert-analytical approaches. The study employs methods of analysis and synthesis, generalization, comparison, modeling, and expert assessment, which makes it possible to consider military-economic forecasting as a complex multifactor system.

Findings. The feasibility of applying a multi-level methodology for assessing the effectiveness of military-economic forecasting is substantiated; the role of each methodological approach is defined, and their generalized characteristics are formulated. It is demonstrated that the integration of different approaches makes it possible to enhance the accuracy, timeliness, adaptability, and practical relevance of forecast estimates, as well as to reduce the risks of inefficient use of defense resources.

Theoretical implications. Deepening scientific understanding of the effectiveness of military-economic forecasting and the development of methodological foundations for its assessment within the context of the modern military economy. The proposed systematization of approaches provides a basis for the further development of defense forecasting theory.

Practical implications. The possibility of using the obtained results in the activities of public administration and defense planning bodies when developing defense programs, formulating budgets, determining priorities for the development of the defense-industrial complex, and improving the system of military-economic forecasting.

Future research. The development of integral indicators for assessing the effectiveness of military-economic forecasting, their empirical testing using specific defense programs as case studies, as well as the expanded application of digital and simulation-based modeling tools within the defense planning system.

Papertype. Review and analytical.

Academic and Practical Development Models of Leadership Qualities in Cadets

Tekmina Cabbarova — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. The purpose is to analyze, on a scientific basis, the academic and practical models for the formation and development of leadership qualities in cadets and to determine their applicability within the context of military education.

Method. The methodology of the study involves the application of scientific and practical approaches, including pedagogical observation, comparative analysis, document review, experimentation, and statistical generalization, aimed at assessing the development of leadership qualities in cadets.

Theoretical implications. The study demonstrated that the formation of leadership qualities requires a comprehensive integration of cadets’ personal development, socio-psychological readiness, and professional competencies. It further confirmed that transformational, situational, and behavior-oriented leadership theories provide effective models suitable for both individual and collective activities within the military education environment. Consequently, the theoretical foundation of leadership training establishes a reliable framework for structuring the educational process and scientifically integrating practical components.

Practical implications. Practical results indicate that simulation, role-playing exercises, tactical drills, and mentorship-based activities significantly enhance cadets’ ability to apply leadership skills in real-life situations. Observations show that the systematic implementation of practical training modules increases cadets’ decision-making speed, team management capabilities, and sense of responsibility. Overall, the application of practical approaches ensures the continuous development of leadership qualities and broadens cadets’ capacity to adapt to future service environments.

Value. This article contributes to the military education process by scientifically defining the integration of academic and practical approaches for the development of leadership qualities in cadets, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of the training system.

Paper type. Empirical.

Conceptual Approach to Assessing the Implementation of Budget Programs (Subprograms) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

Serhiy Ratushnyak — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To substantiate and develop a conceptual approach to assessing the performance of budget programs (subprograms) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine by formalizing a system of indicators, stages, and evaluation coefficients, taking into account the specific features of the defense sector’s functioning under martial law.

Method. The study employed regulatory and legal analysis to examine the provisions of the Budget Code of Ukraine, Ukrainian laws, and subordinate regulations governing the formation, implementation, and evaluation of budget programs (subprograms) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine; systems analysis to consider the evaluation of budget program (subprogram) implementation as a complex multi-stage process within the defense finance system; structural and logical modeling to construct conceptual schemes for evaluating the implementation of budget programs (subprograms) and the mechanisms of their formation, execution, and evaluation; comparative analysis to compare financial and physical (output) indicators of budget program (subprogram) implementation and analyze variants of their ratios; and quantitative analysis (computational method).

Findings. A conceptual approach to assessing the performance of budget programs (subprograms) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has been developed, integrating the stages of planning, monitoring, analysis, evaluation, and managerial decision-making. A formalized performance assessment indicator based on the ratio of financial and physical indicators, as well as a scale for interpreting levels of budget program performance, is proposed. The feasibility of adapting evaluation procedures to martial law conditions is substantiated, taking into account permissible fluctuations in indicators caused by the specifics of defense procurement and contract execution.

Theoretical implications. The theoretical contribution lies in advancing the scientific foundations of defense economics and public finance by conceptualizing the assessment of budget program performance as an analytical tool for managing defense resources that integrates financial and outcome-based parameters of budget fund utilization.

Practical implications. The practical significance lies in the applicability of the results by structural units of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in organizing and conducting evaluations of budget program (subprogram) implementation, preparing analytical materials for managerial decision-making, and improving internal methodological documents in the field of defense budgeting and financial control.

Originality of the study. The originality of the study lies in the formalization of a conceptual approach to assessing the performance of budget programs (subprograms) of the defense authority based on a quantitative ratio of financial and physical indicators and in adapting this approach to martial law conditions.

Research limitations. The analysis of the regulatory framework is limited to the period until December 2025, which does not allow taking into account possible future changes in regulatory documents on the assessment of the implementation of budget programs (subprograms). A promising direction for future research is to improve the current methodology for assessing the implementation of budget programs (subprograms) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Paper type. Theoretical.

Methodological Apparatus for Studying the Problems of Economic Support for the Armed Defense of Ukraine, Taking Into Account the Military-Economic Capabilities of the Enemy

Vitalii Polovenko — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. Development and scientific substantiation of a holistic methodological apparatus for studying the problems of economic support for the armed defense of Ukraine, which provides a systematic assessment of the state's capacity for prolonged armed confrontation, taking into account the military-economic capabilities of the enemy.

Method. Systemic, structural-functional and scenario approaches that allow for a comprehensive analysis of the interaction of military, economic, financial, social and defense factors, as well as modeling possible trajectories of the development of the military-economic situation in Ukraine in the context of an ongoing war.

Practical implications. Consists in the possibility of applying the established theoretical and methodological provisions of the methodological apparatus for studying the problems of economic support for the armed defense of Ukraine in the process of state strategic planning, increasing the efficiency of military-economic resource management, improving the risk monitoring system, and ensuring the stability of the state in the face of military and hybrid challenges.

Future research. Consist in developing a unified system of indicators of military-economic security, creating integrated forecasting models taking into account real wartime data, as well as in an in-depth analysis of the impact of digitalization, energy transformation, and international military-economic partnership on the level of national resilience.

Factors and Determinants of Resource Sustainability: State Monitoring Environment and Security Indicators

Volodymyr Koval — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Purpose. To study and conceptualize the state monitoring system of national security as a dynamic tool for strategic planning to ensure the resilience of Ukraine's defense industry resource flows under martial law.

Method. A comparative analysis of monitoring models from leading countries (British PSA and American GPRA) was applied, alongside the indicative analysis method for developing quantitative adaptability metrics, and a systemic-structural approach for modeling a five-stage process for assessing resource provision stability.

Findings. The transition from descriptive to functional monitoring based on quantitative indicators (I_a, K_l) was justified; the effectiveness of the "SOTA" system and the Brave1 platform in the context of defense procurement digitalization was analyzed; the expediency of the "Outputs–Outcomes–Impacts" hierarchical structure for evaluating defense programs was proven; a five-stage resilience assessment model including cognitive analysis and scenario modeling was developed.

Theoretical implications. The work expands scientific approaches to the category of "state monitoring environment" within the context of the "comprehensive defense" concept; systematizes monitoring principles (reliability, consistency, timeliness) and adapts the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) methodology to security sector needs.

Practical implications. The proposed integral indicators allow for real-time adjustment of state policy; the implementation of US (GPRA) and UK (PSA) experiences contributes to strengthening personal accountability for defense order execution and optimizing interagency coordination via situation centers.

Originality. For the first time, a comprehensive comparison of strategic monitoring parameters under the GPRA (USA) and current Ukrainian practice was conducted, identifying determinants of resource provision resilience and forming a roadmap for transitioning to adaptive defense industry management.

Research limitations. Limitations relate to high geopolitical volatility, difficulties in overcoming "departmental isolation" of data in certain executive bodies, and the need for constant verification of indicator threshold values during active hostilities.