The Theories of war in practice: possible outcomes and means for the termination of war. Case study: Russian war against Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose: is to anticipate the termination of the Russia-Ukraine war considering the underlying causes on the basis of main war termination theories.
Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis.
Findings: The length of a war is typically unpredictable due to the intricate interplay of elements that affect its duration. Initial assessments often underestimate the enemy's capabilities, resolve, and adaptability. Understanding these factors can help in devising strategies to prevent or shorten wars. In historical records, the majority of military operations, campaigns, and wars have exceeded their anticipated duration. What causes the wars to linger longer than anticipated? What variables or elements, in general, affect the duration of wars? These are some of the most frequently considered questions by the researchers. In this regard wars need to be categorized based on their features in order to make sense of how long they should last. The scale and ferocity of wars differ. Some wars lasted only a few days, while others lasted for years or even decades. Some wars were fought between two nations, while others involved multiple nations, some others had a worldwide scope. Limited engagements occurred in some wars, while others left massive amounts of destruction in their wake. While many nations rally their entire population for war, some do not believe it is necessary. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the article illustrates the main points of war theories concerning the origins and end of a conflict, supports the connection between them, and emphasizes the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war. The authors try to anticipate the termination of this war based on various factors.
Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of key concepts of theories of war provide a framework to understand the various dynamics and outcomes of conflicts, including how they begin, unfold, and eventually end. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary case study to explore these theories in practice. The paper provides new insights for understanding the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war and offer various lenses to comprehend and address the war, suggesting a multifaceted approach that includes military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies.
Practical implications: Examining the practical implications of the theories of war in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war involves understanding how these theories translate into real-world strategies and actions that can lead to the termination of the war. The paper highlights that military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies must be integrated to address the complex dynamics of the conflict and pave the way for a sustainable peace.
Value: The study offers significant value in understanding, predicting, and potentially resolving wars in the example of Russia-Ukraine war and provides multiple lenses through which to analyze the war, devise strategies, and anticipate outcomes.
Downloads
References
Aljazeera.com. (2022). Timeline: After months of tensions, Russia attacks Ukraine. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/timeline-after-months-tensions-russia-attacks-ukraine (Accessed: 17.06.2024).
Allotey, S. et al. (1995). Planning and execution of conflict termination. Air Command and Staff College.
Angell, N. (2007). The Great Illusion. Cosimo Classics.
bbc.com. (2024). Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 (Accessed: 18.06.2024).
bbc.com. (2024). Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed since Russiaʼs full-scale invasion. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68397525 (Accessed: 11.06.2024).
britannica.com. (2024). Corrado Gini. Encyclopedia Britannica. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Corrado-Gini (Accessed: 16.06.2024).
britannica.com. (2024). Thomas Malthus. Encyclopedia Britannica. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/money/Thomas-Malthus (Accessed: 20.06.2024).
Coccia, M. (2019). Theories and the reasons for war: A survey. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 115-124. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3424092 (Accessed: 11.05.2024).
Economist.Com. (2024). How Many Russian Soldiers Have Been Killed In Ukraine? Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/07/05/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine (Accessed: 14.07.2024).
English.nv.ua. (2024). NATO to provide Ukraine with one million UAVs in 2024. Available at: https://english.nv.ua/nation/nato-to-provide-ukraine-with-one-million-uavs-in-2024-50393201.html (Accessed: 26.05.2024).
Fearon, J.D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war, International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 379-414. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706903?origin=JSTOR-pdf
Forumarmstrade.org. (2024). Arms transfer to Ukraine. Available at: https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html (Accessed: 04.06.2024).
Foster, J. L., Brewer, G. D. (1976). And the clocks were striking thirteen: The termination of war. The Rand Corporation and Yale University.
France24.com. (2024). In Ukraine's Donbas, ten years of war and Russification. Available at:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240408-ukraine-donbas-ten-years-of-war-russification-russia-donetsk-luhansk (Accessed: 12.05.2024).
Gessen, K. (2022). How the War in Ukraine Might End Available at: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end (Accessed: 12.05.2024).
Global Fire Power. (2024). Available at: https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russia (Accessed: 24.05.2024).
gov.uk. (2024). Over 465,000 Russian personnel killed or wounded since 2022 – a terrible human loss for Russians: UK statement to the OSCE. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/over-465000-russian-personnel-killed-or-wounded-since-2022-a-terrible-human-loss-for-russians-uk-statement-to-the-osce#:~:text=465%2C000.,killed%20and%20wounded%20%E2%80%93%20was%20980 (Accessed: 22.05.2024).
Griffith, M.C. 1992). War Termination: Theory, Doctrine, and Practice. School of Advanced Military Studies.
Guner, E., Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2022). Theories of war in practice: causes and termination (in the example of the Second Karabakh War). Wiedza Obronna. https://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-89aad26d-dfd7-43bb-bd20-7a03a28fee22 (Accessed: 14.08.2023) (Accessed: 06.04.2024).
Heisbourg, F. (2023). How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine, Survival Online. Available at: https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/survival-online/2023/07/how-to-end-a-war-some-historical-lessons-for-ukraine/ (Accessed: 14.05.2024).
Index.minfin.com.ua. (2024). Casualties of the Russian troops in Ukraine Available at: https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/ (Accessed: 06.06.2024).
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2021a). Characteristic features of the second Karabakh war. Social Development and Security, 11(3), 30-40. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2021.11.3.3 (Accessed: 16.06.2024).
Iskandarov, K. & Gawliczek, P. (2020a). The impact of social media on the war. Case study: The Second Karabakh War in Information, Media, Security Environment edited by Miroslav Banasik, Piotr Gawliczek, Agnieszka Rogozinska. Warsaw: Difin. Pp. 162-178.
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2020). The “new great game” in the south caucasus: competition for power and influence. Social Development and Security, 10(1), 25-33. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2020.10.1.4 (Accessed: 12.05.2024).
Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2021b). The second Karabakh war as a war of new generation. Social Development and Security, 11(2), 91-99. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2021.11.2.9 (Accessed: 18.06.2024).
Iskandarov, K., Gawliczek, P., & Mrozek, J. (2023). NATO’s partnership policy in dynamic security landscape. A simple look at a complex picture, Wydawnictwo UWM, Olsztyn.
Iskandarov, K., Gawliczek, P., & Tomasik, J. (2022). Termination of war: factors affecting the outcome (in the example of the Second Karabakh War). Civitas et Lex, 35(3), pp. 7-17. Available at: https://czasopisma.uwm.edu.pl/index.php/cel/article/view/7736/6136 (Accessed: 01.06.2024).
Iskandarov, K., Mammadzada, V., Sadiyev, S. (2019). Non-Alliance policy as a principle of shaping the national security with a focus on the case of Azerbaijan, Journal of Defense Resources Management, 10:2, pp. 62-72. Available at: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=812186 (Accessed: 04.05.2024).
Iskandarov, K., Simons, G. Gawliczek, P. (2019). The South Caucasus: Stage for a ‘New Great Game’ between NATO and Russia? Connections QJ 18, no.3-4, pp.7-34. Available at: https://connections-qj.org/system/files/18.3.01_south_caucasus_new_great_game.pdf. (Accessed: 08.06.2024).
Levy, J.S. (1998). The causes of war and the conditions of peace, Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 1, pp. 139-165. Available at: https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev.polisci.1.1.139 (Accessed: 08.06.2024).
Legier-Topp, L. (2009). War Termination: Setting Conditions for Peace. Available at: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA501266 (Accessed: 07.06.2024).
Lutmar, C., Terris, L. (2017). War Termination. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.574 (Accessed: 20.06.2024).
Massoud, T.G. (1996). War Termination, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 491-496.
Nasirov, E., Iskandarov, K., & Sadiyev, S. (2017). The South Caucasus: A Playground Between NATO and Russia? Connections, 16(3), pp. 47-56. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26867919 (Accessed: 23.06.2024).
Rummel, R.J. (1979). Understanding Conflict and War: War, Power, Peace, Beverly Hills, California: Sage Publications.
Sadiyev, S. & Iskandarov, K. (2018). The evolution of the security environment in the South Caucasus since the end of the Cold War, 17th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group Regional Stability in the South Caucasus, “What a New European Security Deal” could mean for the South Caucasus, 14/2018, pp. 47-53. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/37852657/_What_a_New_European_Security_Deal_could_mean_for_the_South_Caucasus (Accessed: 19.05.2024).
Slantchev, B.L. (2004). How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare and the Terms of Peace, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 813-829.
Slavich, G.M. (2020). Social Safety Theory: A Biologically Based Evolutionary Perspective on Life Stress, Health, and Behavior. Annu Rev Clin Psychol. 7;16, pp. 265-295. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-032816-045159 (Accessed: 20.06.2024).
Stanley, E.A. (2009). War Termination in Theory and Practice. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804772372-013 (Accessed: 11.03.2024).
Stein, A.A., Russett, B.M. (1980). Evaluating War: Outcomes and Consequences in Ted Robert Gurr eds. Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: The Free Press, pp. 399-422.
Stockland, E. (2017). An Analysis of Jack A. Goldstone's Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, Macat Library.
Sweijs, T., Bertolini, M. (2022). How wars end War terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine War. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Available at: https://hcss.nl/report/how-wars-end-russia-ukraine/#top.
Wagschal, U., Metz, T. (2016). A Demographic Peace? Youth Bulges and Other Population-Related Causes of Domestic Conflict. Statistics, Politics and Policy, Vol. 7 (Issue 1-2), pp. 55-97. https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2017-0004 (Accessed: 12.05.2024).
Abstract views: 77 PDF Downloads: 42
Copyright (c) 2024 Khayal Iskandarov, Piotr Gawliczek, Vagif Dadashzade
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
