Improvement of the scientific and methodological apparatus for calculating the risks of occurrence and analyzing scenarios of emergency situations at critical infrastructure facilities
Abstract
Purpose: minimization of the consequences of emergency situations through the use of advanced scientific and methodological apparatus.
Method: probability theory, graph theory, logic algebra, simulation modeling.
Findings: the scientific and methodical apparatus for calculating the risks of occurrence and analyzing scenarios of emergency situations at critical infrastructure objects has been improved in order to prevent the occurrence and minimize the impact of the consequences of emergency situations.
Theoretical implications: prevention of emergency situations of a terrorist nature by assessing destructive events in the conditions of cascading consequences of terrorist influence.
Papertype: descriptive and research.
Downloads
References
Lysenko О., Chekanova І., Kutovyi О., Nikitin V. (2015). Risk management strategies on critical infrastructure objects under uncertainty. Scientific Bulletin of UkrNDIPB. 1, 134-139. Available from : http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Nvundipb_2015_1_18 [View date February 1, 2024].
Chumachenko S., Trotskyi V. (2017). Assessment of threats to critical infrastructure facilities. Scientific bulletin: Civil defense and fire safety, 1 (3), 41-47.
Bobro D. (2015). Determination of assessment criteria and threats to critical infrastructure. Strategic priorities. Series: Economy, 4, 83-93. Available from : http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/spe_2015_4_12 [View date February 1, 2024].
Lysychenko G., Zabulonov Yu. & Khmil G. (2008). Natural, man-made and ecological risks: analysis, assessment, management. Monograph, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of geochemistry of the environment. environment, 542 p.
Pederson P., Dudenhoeffer D., Hartley S. & Permann M. (2006). Critical Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling: A Survey of U.S. and International Research. Idaho National Laboratory, 126 p. Available from : http://cip.management.dal.ca/publications/Critical%20Infrastructure%20Interdependency%20Modeling.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Environmental Assessment and Recovery Priorities for Eastern Ukraine / Denisov N., Averin D, Yushchuk A., Yermakov V., Ulytskyi O., Bystrov P., Zibtsev S., Chumachenko S, Nabyvanets Y. // Kyiv: VAITE, 2017. – 88 р. ISBN 978-966-2310-77-1. Available from : https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/4/3/362566_0.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Available from : https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/4/3/362566_0.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Uryadnikova I., Chumachenko S., Karmazin S. & Teslenko O. (2015). Application of expert-analytical methods for assessing the risks of emergency situations at critical infrastructure facilities. Scientific Bulletin of the Academy of Municipal Management. series "Technology", 1, 206-2018. Available from : http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Nvamu_teh_2015_1_24 [View date February 1, 2024].
Murasov R., Nikitin A., Meshcheriakov I., Pidhorodetskyi M. & Poplavets S. (2023). Methodology for assessing threats and risks for critical infrastructure objects according to scenarios of the development of emergency situations. Modern information technologies in the field of security and defense, 3(48)/2023, 35-43. https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2023-48-3-35-43 [View date February 1, 2024].
Murasov R., Meshcheriakov I. (2023). The information and technical method of preventing emergency situations of a terrorist nature by assessing the possibility of gradual growth of destructive events caused by the cascading consequences of the primary terrorist impact. Social Development & Security, 13(5, 180-191. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2023.13.5.17 [View date February 1, 2024].
Chumachenko S., Kutovyi O. & Mykhaylova A. (2020). Application of expert analytical methods to assess threats to critical infrastructure objects of the defense-industrial complex in eastern Ukraine. Environmental engineering, 4(18), 114-123. Available from : https://repo.btu.kharkov.ua/bitstream/123456789/1580/1/17.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Fursenko O.M., Chumachenko S.M. & Karmazyn S.V. (2015). Expert assessment of threats to objects of critical infrastructure of the gas transportation system of Ukraine using the method of analysis of hierarchies. Technogenic and ecological safety and civil protection, 9, 68-77. Available from : http://tes.igns.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/V9.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Biryukov D., Zaslavskii V., Evgienko V. & Franchuk O. (2009). Thread scenarios modeling and assessment for critical infrastructure. Scientific notes, volume 99, 97-101. Available from : https://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/server/api/core/bitstreams/d255303b-5c2e-480d-9083-a7562058f849/content [View date February 1, 2024].
Chumachenko S., Murasov R. & Melnyk Y. (2021). Theoretical and methodological basis of information analysis of ecological and man-general threats for potentially hazardous facilities of critical infrastructure in the conditions of the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine. Modern information technologies in the field of security and defense, 1 (40)/2021, 117-122. https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2021-40-1-117-122 [View date February 1, 2024].
In 2023, the Russians struck Ukraine with tens of thousands of strikes: infographic. Available from : https://www.unian.ua/war/u-2023-roci-rosiyani-zavdali-po-ukrajini-desyatki-tisyach-udariv-infografika-12500187.html [View date February 1, 2024].
Report on the main results of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in 2022. Available from : https://dsns.gov.ua/upload/1/6/4/9/3/5/0/publicnii-zvit-2022-ostannia-versiia-1.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Order of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy dated 04.12.2022 No. 637 On approval of the Methodology for determining risks and their accepted levels for declaring objects of increased danger. Available from : https://zakononline.com.ua/documents/show/34982___34982 [View date February 1, 2024].
Henley, E.J., Kumamoto, H. (1984). Reliability of technical systems and risk assessment. Mechanical engineering, 528 p. Available from : http://www.immsp.kiev.ua/postgraduate/Biblioteka_trudy/NadezhnostTekhnicheskikhSistemKumamoto1984.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Law A.M., Kelton W.D. (2004). Simulation modeling. Classic CS. 3rd ed. BHV Publishing Group, 847 p. Available from : https://heterarchica.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/1kel_ton_v_lou_a_imitatsionnoe_modelirovanie.pdf [View date February 1, 2024].
Abstract views: 95 PDF Downloads: 65
Copyright (c) 2024 Rustam Murasov, Anatolii Nikitin, Ivan Meshcheriakov, Mykola Pidhorodetskyi, Serhii Poplavets
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
