A probabilistic method of hazard analysis and calculation of the degree of risk

Keywords: labor protection, diseases, occupational safety


Purpose: development of new methods of analysis and modeling of the conditional probability of the occurrence of an industrial injury, acceptable for practical engineering calculations based on potentiation under the combined influence of professional and non-professional factors.

Method: to realize the purpose of the study, an assessment of the probability of an accident and the development of various options for dangerous situations was carried out. Methods of analysis and synthesis, game theory became the methodical tools of the conducted research.

The results of the study: an improved mathematical model for simulating the conditional probability of injury to an employee when performing technological operations.

Theoretical implications: consists in the possibility of determining and realistically assessing the health risk of those contingents of the population that are exposed to risk factors with the help of an improved methodology for conducting analysis and modeling of the conditional probability of occurrence of an industrial injury.

Value: in the course of the study, it was determined that a real health risk assessment is impossible without a sufficient information base on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of risk factors, data on the health status of those contingents of the population that are affected by these factors, and a tool for conducting conditional probability analysis and modeling the occurrence of an industrial injury. The value of the research lies in the improvement of theoretical provisions and methodological approaches to risk assessment of the probability of occurrence of an industrial injury.

Limitations of the study: the limitation of the study is the use of freely available information.

Papertype: theoretical.


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How to Cite
Bogatov, O., Pavlunko, M., Posmityukh, O., & Oboznenko, E. (2023). A probabilistic method of hazard analysis and calculation of the degree of risk. Social Development and Security, 13(2), 151-160. https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2023.13.2.13
Civil Security

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