A probabilistic method of hazard analysis and calculation of the degree of risk
Purpose: development of new methods of analysis and modeling of the conditional probability of the occurrence of an industrial injury, acceptable for practical engineering calculations based on potentiation under the combined influence of professional and non-professional factors.
Method: to realize the purpose of the study, an assessment of the probability of an accident and the development of various options for dangerous situations was carried out. Methods of analysis and synthesis, game theory became the methodical tools of the conducted research.
The results of the study: an improved mathematical model for simulating the conditional probability of injury to an employee when performing technological operations.
Theoretical implications: consists in the possibility of determining and realistically assessing the health risk of those contingents of the population that are exposed to risk factors with the help of an improved methodology for conducting analysis and modeling of the conditional probability of occurrence of an industrial injury.
Value: in the course of the study, it was determined that a real health risk assessment is impossible without a sufficient information base on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of risk factors, data on the health status of those contingents of the population that are affected by these factors, and a tool for conducting conditional probability analysis and modeling the occurrence of an industrial injury. The value of the research lies in the improvement of theoretical provisions and methodological approaches to risk assessment of the probability of occurrence of an industrial injury.
Limitations of the study: the limitation of the study is the use of freely available information.
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Do Stan virobnichogo travmatizmu. Derzhavna sluzhba Ukrayini z pitan praci. [The state of industrial injuries. State Service of Ukraine on Labor Issues]. Available from : https://dsp.gov.ua/stan-vyrobnychoho-travmatyzmu/ (access date 20.01.2023).
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Pro zatverdzhennya Derzhavnih sanitarnih norm ta pravil "Gigiyenichna klasifikaciya praci za pokaznikami shkidlivosti ta nebezpechnosti faktoriv virobnichogo seredovisha, vazhkosti ta napruzhenosti trudovogo procesu". [On the approval of the State Sanitary Norms and Rules "Hygienic classification of work according to indicators of harmfulness and dangerous factors of the production environment, difficulty and tension of the labor process".]. Kyiv.: Ministry of Health of Ukraine. 2014. Available from : https://ips.ligazakon.net/document/RE25249?an=1&ed=2014_04_08 (access date 17.01.2023)
Poryadok rozsliduvannya ta obliku neshasnih vipadkiv, profesijnih zahvoryuvan ta avarij na virobnictvi [The procedure for investigating and recording accidents, occupational diseases and accidents at work]: Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated April 17, 2019 No. 337 Available from : https://pro-op.com.ua/article/882-santarno-ggnchna-harakteristika-umov-prats (access date 18.01.2023).
Azarov S. I., Svyatun O. V. Analiz uslovnoj veroyatnosti vozniknoveniya proizvodstvennoj travmy pri avarii [Azarov S.Y., Sviatun O.V. Analysis of the conditional probability of occurrence of an industrial injury in the event of an accident]: Occupational hygiene, 2004 – release. 35.
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