Regarding forecasting the sufficiency of the stateʼs economic capabilities to ensure the necessary level of defense needs
(results of long-term forecasting of Ukraineʼs GDP and defense expenditures for the period 2023-2032, taking into account the influence of the war factor)
Abstract
Purpose: forecasting the GDP indicator and military expenditures of Ukraine for the long-term perspective under various scenarios of the development of the war and the amount of international financial aid.
Method: the main methods of research are expert methods, the method of statistical analysis, the method of regression and correlation analysis, methods of mathematical statistics, forecasting methods.
Findings: estimates of the dynamics of Ukraine's GDP and military expenditures for the long term under various scenarios of the development of the war and the volume of international financial aid, as well as estimates of the growth of these indicators in absolute values and percentages.
Theoretical implications: the main theoretical value of the article is the approach to forecasting Ukraine's GDP indicators and military expenditures, taking into account the analogy of the dynamics of these indicators based on the experience of previous wars.
Paper type: theoretical and practical.
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